The Devils should start Meier with Hughes and Bratt
Alex Chauvancy dives into why putting together a power trio may be the way to go.
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By Alex Chauvancy (@AlexC_THW)
The New Jersey Devils did the thing. It's Timo Time. Timo Meier is a member of the red and black and will undoubtedly add a significant boost to the team's top six once he returns from a minor injury he suffered with the San Jose Sharks.
Where he fits into the Devils' line combinations remains to be seen. Surely, some fans will want to see him alongside fellow countryman Nico Hischier, but is Hischier the best fit?
Right now, it's hard to argue for breaking up the line of Tomáš Tatar, Hischier and Dawson Mercer. They've been the Devils' best combo over the last week-plus of games, so there's no need to mess with what isn't broken.
Even if that trio wasn't cruising, the Devils' best option – at least to start – is to place Meier alongside Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt.
Meier, Hughes & Bratt could dominate at 5-on-5
When writing about line combinations, I try to find pairs that have a good track record together. For example, we know Tatar and Hischier have played well on a line since the Devils signed Tatar in August 2021.
Whether it was with Bratt or Fabian Zetterlund alongside them this season, any line with Tatar and Hischier has always controlled play at five-on-five, as they're doing now with Mercer.
Likewise, that's been the same with Hughes and Bratt. Dating back to last season, Hughes and Bratt have a 60.66 Corsi for percentage and 63.5 expected goals percentage when paired together.
The Devils have dominated teams both ways with them on the ice, and it's probably why head coach Lindy Ruff had them together with Yegor Sharangovich in the few games before they acquired Meier from the San Jose Sharks.
Sharangovich has played well with Hughes and Bratt this season; but he hasn't scored like he has in the past with those two. He likely ends up on the third line with Ondrej Palát and Erik Haula when Meier gets healthy, which should help the Devils' depth. It's the obvious move to make, anyway.
Really, this is more about getting Meier alongside Hughes and Bratt than anything else. Hughes and Bratt dominate in possession. That we already know. However, Meier is also a good possession player himself.
Over the last three seasons, he has a 54.44 expected goals percentage, ranked second on the Sharks to Michael Eyssimont, who's only played 19 games with the team; those have come this season.
Meier can drive possession because he's a power forward who gets to high-danger areas and capitalizes on the chances he gets, as well as the ones he creates for himself.
He's a high-volume shooter who'd be on pace for 367 shots on goal in 82 games. He and Hughes are both averaging about 4.5 shots on goal per game. Not to mention, Bratt is quietly on pace for 33 tallies. The scoring upside with these three is through the roof.
Another reason for pairing Meier with Hughes and Bratt is in transition. Meier is quite good in transition and he was doing a lot of that in San Jose. The Devils won't want him to do the heavy lifting on the rush, an area where Bratt and Hughes excel. That's specifically true in zone exits, where Meier ranks in the 26th percentile this season.
Both Hughes and Bratt are in the 75th percentile or better in zone exits, so having them on a line with Meier to help start the rush seems like the way to go; at least to begin.
Not only do Hughes and Bratt appear to be a seamless fit for Meier as linemates; Hughes is probably the better fit as Meier's center in the long run.
No one can create chances and drive play like Hughes on the Devils. He's one of the very best at it in the league and, with how often Meier creates his own chances, it'll make defending the team's top six very difficult for most opponents.
For where this team is right now, and with how the Tatar, Hischier and Mercer line is playing, Meier with Hughes and Bratt is the way Ruff should go to begin the Meier era. That would give the Devils a look of:
Tatar - Hischier - Mercer
Meier - Hughes - Bratt
Palát - Haula - Sharangovich
Miles Wood - Michael McLeod - Jesper Boqvist/Nathan Bastian
I'd say that's pretty good, don't you say?
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
Would you consider Boqvist instead of Wood on L4?
Yeah, I agree 100%. Leave the hot line alone and let's see if Hughes, Bratt and Meier can create some magic together. Was kind hoping Shara would thrive with those two, but didn't work out that way.
Having a proven finisher who can keep up with the pace of Bratt and Hughes will be fun to watch. If it doesn't work out, playing Nico and Timo together is a pretty nice fall back option.