Breaking down the Timo Meier trade

The New Jersey Devils landed the biggest fish on the market and, all things considered, paid a more than reasonable price to do it.

Follow along on Twitter @ToddCordell | @InfernalAccess

Be sure to join the Discord channel to talk hockey, and everything else, with our writers and subscribers.

---

The New Jersey Devils pulled off a blockbuster trade on Monday afternoon, prying Timo Meier – and a few minor leaguers – from the San Jose Sharks in exchange for a wide array of assets.

Leaving the organization will be Fabian Zetterlund, Shakir Mukhamadullin, Nikita Okhotiuk, Andreas Johnsson, a 2023 1st round pick (barring it being a top two selection), and a conditional 2nd in 2024. That pick will upgrade to a 1st if the Devils reach the final four.

There’s a lot of layers to a move like this so I’m going to break things down into categories and look at what the Devils get, what they gave up, and the long-term outlook.

Meier is a difference maker

As mentioned in yesterday’s reaction post, Meier is an elite offensive winger who legitimately generates scoring chances as well as anybody in the league.

He currently ranks 1st in scoring chances, 2nd in expected goals, and 4th in high-danger opportunities, which is nothing new for him.

Over the past three years, only Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews – arguably the two best players in the NHL – have generated more expected goals at 5v5.

There are a lot of scorers who, while still dangerous, don’t pack a lethal punch at full-strength. Mika Zibanejad and Steven Stamkos, for example, are very reliant on the power play and can go through quiet spells when the opportunities aren’t coming their way.

In those instances, their ability to score goals – and impact games a whole – really falls off. That’s not Timo Meier; at all.

He is ultra dangerous at full-strength. With respect to Tomas Hertl and Logan Couture, pivots like Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are only going to make him more dangerous in those situations.

Meier is also a very strong play driver. He is in the midst of his seventh NHL season. Each and every single year the Sharks controlled a larger share of the shot attempts, and expected goals, with Meier on the ice. Unsurprisingly, that has consistently led to positive goal differentials as well.

I don’t think Meier’s physical impact can be undersold here either. GM Tom Fitzgerald has long talked about wanted to add a bit more size and some different elements to compliment the finesse players up front.

The Ondrej Palat signing was a step towards that but Meier is a whole different animal in every sense. Obviously, he brings a lot more offense, speed, and raw skill. He’s also more physical.

Meier ranks 43rd among all forwards in 5v5 hits since the beginning of the 2021 campaign. Physical, brash players like Sam Bennett, Brayden Schenn, Evander Kane, and Matthew Tkachuk lag behind Meier during that span.

He isn’t just someone who can power through contact. He’ll initiate it and dish out his share of punishment as well.