Be sure to join the Discord channel to talk hockey, and everything else, with me and fellow subscribers. Today’s post was written by C.J. TURTORO. You can find him on Twitter @CJTDevil. A running joke in Hockey Twitter is that, no matter what a given story is about -- a Canadian team, an American team, a minor league team, a badminton team, the Israeli-Palestinian crisis -- a certain contigent of Leafs fans will respond with “How does this affect the Leafs?”
• A “killer instinct” and “knowing how to win” are just things people say when they can’t explain why good teams lose because they are unfamiliar with the existence of randomness.
• all that will really have happened is that the law of large numbers will have kicked in
Thank you!
There’s a word that describes an error that affects a lot of sports analysis: APOPHENIA -- the tendency to perceive a connection or meaningful pattern between unrelated or random things.
So if you don't build through free agency, and you don't have a prospect who fills a key role (at least not at an elite level), and you don't have the assets to trade for such a player without making big holes elsewhere, what do you do then? Hope you draft the right player and wait 3 years? That's not an answer 6 years into a rebuild.
I get the free agent advice, but I'd like to know what the answer is other than, keep making small low risk, high reward moves for middle of the lineup players. Like, when your realistic trade suggestion is Ryan Graves I have issues with the thought process. Because the issue isn't that the Devils don't have depth, it's that many of the players who should be their depth players are playing too high in the lineup. I could've copied and pasted this comment nearly every year for the last 6 years, but the Devils lack superstar talent. There's not a single player the roster who I feel confident is going to be really good next year and will definitely provide top line/top pairing value (other than maybe Bratt?). Hughes has had one good year, Hischier has had injury issues every year since his rookie year and is coming off of two bad seasons, CJ has pointed out that Smith isn't exactly looking like the next superstar blueliner. Bottom line, unless the plan is to be in the hunt for Connor Bedard, I think the Devils need to start thinking bigger.
IMHO way too much sports talk is hindsight psychoanalysis about urgency, energy, intensity, focus, passion, commitment, confidence, swagger, etc.
Most matches are determined by a combo of talent and randomness. Hockey is particularly subject to randomness because, unlike say tennis and basketball which have mostly true hops, hockey is rife with chaotic caroms and deflections.
I love Dougie Hamilton - find me a GM who wouldn’t want that guy on their team. But I agree that it’s not worth the ridiculous (but deserved) long term, $9M+ AAV deal given where the Devils are right now. They do need to add at least 1 good defender though either through trade or free agency in addition to the one they’ll likely get in the draft at #4.
• randomness just happens to be a b****
• A “killer instinct” and “knowing how to win” are just things people say when they can’t explain why good teams lose because they are unfamiliar with the existence of randomness.
• all that will really have happened is that the law of large numbers will have kicked in
Thank you!
There’s a word that describes an error that affects a lot of sports analysis: APOPHENIA -- the tendency to perceive a connection or meaningful pattern between unrelated or random things.
So if you don't build through free agency, and you don't have a prospect who fills a key role (at least not at an elite level), and you don't have the assets to trade for such a player without making big holes elsewhere, what do you do then? Hope you draft the right player and wait 3 years? That's not an answer 6 years into a rebuild.
I get the free agent advice, but I'd like to know what the answer is other than, keep making small low risk, high reward moves for middle of the lineup players. Like, when your realistic trade suggestion is Ryan Graves I have issues with the thought process. Because the issue isn't that the Devils don't have depth, it's that many of the players who should be their depth players are playing too high in the lineup. I could've copied and pasted this comment nearly every year for the last 6 years, but the Devils lack superstar talent. There's not a single player the roster who I feel confident is going to be really good next year and will definitely provide top line/top pairing value (other than maybe Bratt?). Hughes has had one good year, Hischier has had injury issues every year since his rookie year and is coming off of two bad seasons, CJ has pointed out that Smith isn't exactly looking like the next superstar blueliner. Bottom line, unless the plan is to be in the hunt for Connor Bedard, I think the Devils need to start thinking bigger.
More on randomness:
IMHO way too much sports talk is hindsight psychoanalysis about urgency, energy, intensity, focus, passion, commitment, confidence, swagger, etc.
Most matches are determined by a combo of talent and randomness. Hockey is particularly subject to randomness because, unlike say tennis and basketball which have mostly true hops, hockey is rife with chaotic caroms and deflections.
I love Dougie Hamilton - find me a GM who wouldn’t want that guy on their team. But I agree that it’s not worth the ridiculous (but deserved) long term, $9M+ AAV deal given where the Devils are right now. They do need to add at least 1 good defender though either through trade or free agency in addition to the one they’ll likely get in the draft at #4.
Great writeup. Thanks!