What shouldn't surprise you in 2021: Smith bad, Yegor good, and no Luke Hughes
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Today’s post was written by C.J. TURTORO. You can find him on Twitter @CJTDevil.
It’s around this time of the offseason -- the last couple weeks before the draft, free agency, etc. -- that I normally begin to realize the gaping chasm between my own opinions and the “consensus.”
I obviously believe I’m right or else I would change my opinions, but I think that, at minimum, there are some things that people should prepare themselves for as possibilities.
Here are a few of them pertaining to the 2021-22 season:
Ty Smith struggles
Sorry, this is a sad one. Next one is happy I swear. I’ve been pumping the brakes on the Ty Smith hype train since his point streak to start the season when his point production was masking some glaring issues, particularly on the defensive side of the puck.
Things started to look better when he played with Damon Severson, but “Smith was better when paired with the Devils’ best defender” is hardly a ringing endorsement of the franchises best (only?) future asset on the blueline.
In total, he was about average offensively, and significantly below-average defensively.
In both the Evolving-Hockey and Hockeyviz impact models, Smith cost the Devils between 0.15 and 0.2 goals per hour in expected differential.
In Evolving-Hockey’s projected GAR model, he’s projected to be the 3rd most valuable defender behind Severson and Murray (if re-signed), but his floor is low -- the bottom of his prediction interval has him costing us 5.5 goals relative to a replacement-level player.
Due to 1) how unremarkable his rookie season was; 2) how little data we have on him, and; 3) how much we expect him to play, that -5.5 number is lower than only P.K. Subban in terms of how bad things could get.
He could be great! He’s got top-pairing upside. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Yegor Sharangovich could be the best player on the team and a 35-goal scorer.
See, I told you it’d be happy!
Yegor Sharangovich scored 16 goals in 54 games this season. Let’s say that with additional playing time -- particularly on the power play -- he raises his shots per game from 2.11 to an even 3 shots per game.
Averaging three shots per game over 82, while maintaining his shooting percentage of 14%, would add up to a 34.4 goal projection. That’s assuming that he just plays as well this next season. He could develop further, and his power play time could ramp up his shooting percentage even more.
The aforementioned projections have Yegor expected to be the 3rd most valuable Devil behind only Hughes and Bratt - ahead of Nico Hischier. And his ceiling is higher than what Hughes’ projected value is -- hence, it shouldn’t be too surprising if he’s the most valuable player on the team.
Yegor’s 200-foot impacts were not excellent last year, but they improved over the course of the season as he adjusted to the NHL game.
If his overall game continues to improve the way his speed and shot did over the past year, the sky is the limit for him as a prospect.
The Devils don’t draft Luke Hughes at #4 overall, or even a defender, or anyone at all
For a variety of reasons, including the our organizational need for defenders, and the familial relationship with our franchise center, Luke Hughes has become the favorite choice of the Devils faithful one whom to use our 4th overall selection. However, there are just as many reasons for the Devils not to do that (perhaps even more) than there are to do it.
Owen Power is the consensus #1 defender, according to scouting agencies, and Brandt Clarke is the consensus #1 among statistical models. If one or both of them are available at #4, it is reasonable, and I’d argue it is advisable, to draft them over Hughes.
But there’s not even a guarantee that they draft a defender. There are several forward prospects including William Eklund, Matthew Beneirs, and Dylan Guenther that are of comparable, if not higher, value than Hughes.
The Devils are nowhere near good enough at the forward position (particularly at wing) to forgo additional value in the interest of filling the hole at defense.
And, unless you think the Devils are contending next season, there is a ton of uncertainty in what we will need by the time this asset matures.
The third option is the Devils not using the pick at all. Filling gaps in the lineup is a shot-term mindset, so if the Devils genuinely want to plug the hole, it’s probably smarter to use the 4th overall to acquire an NHL-ready defender.
Elliotte Friedman has reported this offseason that the Devils want to take a big step this year; that they were interested in Dougie Hamilton, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Vegas goalies; and that they were shopping the 4th overall pick for a good young defender.
Put those puzzle pieces together and it seems reasonable that the Devils may want to be good, and they may not want to wait for the 2021 4th overall to mature in order to do that.
Editor’s note: I quite like Luke Hughes and my most recent breakdown of his game is unlocked for all to read.
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Go get Jones and Laine in a bigger deal for the 4th.
Yeah, I'm really hopeful Smith takes the Jesper Bratt path of development. His underlyings were trash his first year and have improved every year since to the point where he's one of their best players.