On the Dougie Hamilton trickle down effect

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It’s hard to put into words just how much of a difference maker Dougie Hamilton will be for the New Jersey Devils.

It’s not just the absurd goal scoring consistency. It’s not just the presence quarterbacking a power play. It’s not just the almost unrivalled ability to drive play. It’s not just the fact Lindy Ruff can throw him to the wolves vs top competition and still get strong results.

I really think it goes beyond all that.

On top of everything Hamilton brings to the table individually, he makes life easier on everyone else.

Damon Severson, for example, has been asked to play over his head for a while now out of necessity. The Devils simply didn’t have a better, or even equal, option on the right side.

With Hamilton in the mix, Severson is clearly entrenched as the RD2 on this team. And he’s going to benefit greatly from that.

Last season, for example, Severson posted a 49.8 Corsi For% and minus-4 goal differential vs elite competition.

That’s honestly not bad considering the Devils were a horrible team and couldn’t get a save all season but that’s beside the point. Severson was fighting just to come out even.

It was a much different story as the competition softened. Severson posted a 52.7 CF% vs middle-tier competition, and completely beat up on the bottom feeders. The Devils controlled nearly 58%(!) of the shot attempts with Severson on the ice vs ‘gritensity’, per PuckIQ.

Suffice to say, he’ll have an easier time making an impact on the game playing less against top-end players.

Severson dropping down to the 2nd pairing also allows Lindy Ruff the freedom to pair him with Ty Smith on a consistent basis.

You don’t want Smith playing on the top pairing – he’s not good enough defensively to face high-end competition regularly – but, again, it’s a different story when the matchups are softer.

Smith’s numbers are almost identical to Severson’s when facing low-to-mid level competition, which is kind of funny considering he spent ~40% of his ice away from Severson.

At any rate, more Smith + Severson is a good thing; especially when avoiding the Alex Ovechkins and Sidney Crosbys of the world.

The Smith+Severson pairing posted a 56.5 CF%, 54.4 xGF%, and 57.3 SCF% across more than 450 minutes at 5v5. They heavily tilted the ice in New Jersey’s favor on a nightly basis.

While the results on the scoreboard didn’t quite match the underlying numbers, low on-ice percentages played a big role in that. The Devils couldn’t get a save, which I doubt will be the case again next season.

I think Ruff having the freedom to use Smith and Severson more frequently – without being forced to deploy them against the big dogs – will be a huge positive for the team.

But that’s not the only way the Hamilton trickle down effect will help.

Hamilton obviously makes the top power play much more potent, and allows for Severson and Smith – very competent offensive talents who compliment each other well – to play on the 2nd unit. That’ll help.

And, heck, Hamilton signing should even be a good thing for P.K. Subban. His best days are behind him, no question, but he will certainly benefit from facing lesser quality of competition.

Subban posted a sub 48 CF% and minus-12 goal differential (9 GF, 21 GA) vs elite competition last season. He struggled mightily yet, like Severson, was forced to spend plenty of time playing above his head because there was no clear alternative.

He fared much better vs lesser opponents. Much, much, better. Subban owned a 56.3 CF%(!) vs low-to-mid tier opponents and came out even on the scoreboard. Again, this with poor goaltending behind him.

I’m not suggesting he’ll be a world beater moving forward, however, there’s reason to believe he could excel in a somewhat limited role.

In signing Hamilton, New Jersey clearly improved the state of Pair 1, Pair 2, Pair 3, and their special teams units.

The trickle down effect is real.

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Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and PuckIQ.com