Five thoughts about Dougie Hamilton
Five thoughts about Dougie Hamilton
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I’ve written a lot about Dougie Hamilton in recent weeks. Yet I feel like I’m just scratching the surface about the player he is and what he will – and won’t – bring to the New Jersey Devils.
Today I’m going to dig deeper, touching on Hamilton’s power play abilities, the perception he was carried in Calgary/Carolina, his ‘flaws’ defensively, and everything in between.
Hamilton will provide a huge boost on the power play
Dougie Hamilton is a man of many talents. Among them is his ability to quarterback a power play at a high level.
Hamilton ranks 13th in 5-on-4 points over the last two seasons – just behind Shea Theodore – and no defender generated more scoring chances on the man advantage. Not one.
Clearly, Hamilton’s individual results are very good. His on-ice metrics are even better.
Let me set the table for you. From 2019-21, 63 defenders logged at least 150 minutes on 5v4 power plays. Essentially, we’re looking at the top two offensive defenders of each team.
It’s a pretty concentrated group of highly skilled blueliners; and Hamilton stands above the rest.
The Hurricanes averaged 119 shot attempts, 28.21 high-danger chances, and 8.28 expected goals per 60 with Hamilton. He ranked 1st in each, fending off Shea Theodore, Cale Makar, and Oscar Klefbom in those categories.
Hamilton lags behind in the goal department, slotting *checks notes* 2nd in on-ice GF/60; closely behind Klefbom.
The latter played fewer minutes due to injury, and shared the ice with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on an absurdly dominant PP unit. There’s no shame in not being the top dog there. It’s expected, to be honest.
Sure, Hamilton had plenty of talented players to share the ice with in Carolina. But there’s talent in New Jersey, too, and many of the team’s top players are just scratching the surface of their potential.
Hamilton should be able to do plenty of damage on the PP moving forward, which will be a welcomed sight given the Devils’ struggles over the last couple years.
Dougie was *not* propped up by partners
There’s a pretty direct correlation between people who think Dougie Hamilton is overpaid, and/or question him being labeled as a top-end defenseman, and those who believe he was carried by Mark Giordano and Jaccob Slavin.
I can understand why that line of thought would at least cross someone’s mind. Giordano recently won a Norris Trophy, and Slavin is pretty universally regarded as the most underrated defenseman (guess he’s not underrated!) in the league right now.
That doesn’t mean Hamilton was ‘carried’. There’s more evidence to suggest Hamilton helped prop up Giordano and Slavin. Don’t get me wrong, they’re both fantastic players I’d happily take on my team.
But they seemed to benefit from Hamilton more than Hamilton benefited from them.
I was ready to deep dive into the numbers to help illustrate my point but @JFreshHockey has already done the heavy lifting.
First, we’ll look at how Hamilton and Giordano fared with and without one another.
Quick summary: Hamilton and Giordano were one of the top defense pairings in the league, heavily tilting the ice in Calgary’s favor whenever they were out there together.
Hamilton’s numbers did drop without Giordano. He posted a 51.3 xGF% (very solid, but not elite), which was 6.5% lower than his total with Giordano.
But Giordano’s xGF% was 12.2% lower away from Hamilton. He wasn’t very good – or any good – without Hamilton. His numbers were actually quite bad.
For perspective, Detroit finished with a 45.32 xGF% at 5v5 this past season. Giordano was on that level without Hamilton.
That’s old news, though. Let’s look at how the most recent/current version of Hamilton fared with and without Slavin.
Okay, so the story is similar here. Hamilton and Slavin posted high-end top pairing results together. Slavin was still solid without Hamilton, although he dipped 5-6% in those key categories.
Hamilton still posted top-end results without Slavin, though. They were actually better sans Slavin.
Usage could’ve played a role in that – I’m sure Hamilton faced tougher assignments playing with Slavin – but this still paints Hamilton in a positive light.
Theoretically, Slavin faced similar competition with and without Hamilton. But his results were in another world with Hamilton. That’s not a coincidence.
The intention here isn’t to throw dirt at Slavin or Giordano, both of whom are awesome players and people.
I’m throwing dirt on the argument Hamilton can’t succeed without them. He already has.
Hamilton will turn defense to offense
One of the reasons Hamilton has posted such strong defensive results in recent years: he doesn’t spend much time in the defensive zone.
I think that’s a big misconception about Hamilton’s game. Some people spit on stats and dispel the notion he’s a strong ‘defender’ because they see some mistakes play out. And that’s fine. Maybe Hamilton isn’t an elite defender in the traditional sense; locking players down 1-on-1, throwing them off the puck in the corners, and shutting down all the half-court stuff.
But Hamilton is very good at getting pucks back. Once he does that, it’s out of the defensive zone and moving the other way in a hurry.
That helps mitigate the *need* to be the kind of defender people want to see from someone labeled as a top-end guy.
And I’m not just spewing non-quantifiable BS. It shows in the numbers. Architecte-Hockey uses EA Sports style player ratings, powered by InStat Hockey, to grade players in all different aspects of the game.
Look how highly they regard Hamilton in terms of playmaking, long passing (stretch passes), and other puck-moving/transporting categories.
New Jersey plays very fast under Lindy Ruff, and they have a ton of talented young forwards to carry the mail and create off the rush.
All they need is defenders who can consistently get them the puck. Dougie Hamilton certainly fits the criteria.
Hamilton is the king of volume
There’s shooting your shot, and then there’s Dougie Hamilton. He takes the term to a whole new level.
Hamilton has averaged 8.8 shots on goal per 60 over the last three seasons, putting him well ahead of 2nd place Roman Josi (7.47) and all other defensemen.
There’s a reason for that. Hamilton has attempted more shots on a per 60 basis than any others during that time.
Simply put, Hamilton is not someone fans will need to pry to shoot the puck. He’ll grip it and rip it every chance he gets. And it’s hard to argue he shouldn’t.
Shortened seasons or not, Hamilton has netted at least 10 goals in seven consecutive years. No blueliner has found the back of the net more often over the last four seasons.
Hamilton has managed to take things up a notch of late, averaging 19 goals(!) per 82 games over the last two seasons.
He’s going to be a real scoring threat from the backend.
New Jersey has the perfect compliment for Dougie
Hamilton is not the perfect in-zone defender. Some of the things fans hammer him for are true. He does play ‘soft’ at times. He’s not somebody who is going to bury a guy in the corner and put an abrupt halt to a cycle possession. And that doesn’t mean he’s not a top-tier defenseman. There are so many great things he does that lead to elite results despite those flaws.
And you know what? Teams don’t simply have to accept said flaws and throw their hands in the air. They can play Hamilton with the right partner to help mitigate his weaknesses, which seems to be the plan in New Jersey.
I’ve talked a lot about how Ryan Graves is the perfect guy to spell Hamilton on the top pairing. The numbers suggest the same.
These are Hamilton’s ratings in most of the defensive and physical categories.
He looks good in terms of defensive involvement, and suppression, which is important. If he were to be good at any two, those would be the ones to pick.
But this also gives credence to the perception Hamilton isn’t somebody who embraces and thrives in the dirty aspects of defense. And that’s fine!
You know who embraces and thrives doing the dirty work, so to speak? Ryan Graves.
Graves is very involved defensively and matches Hamilton in suppression. But he grades out much better in terms of gritty metrics like battles, blocking shots, and laying the body.
He can take initiative and handle the dirty work defensively to help Hamilton regain possession and get play moving in the right direction.
I think Graves is going to be the perfect partner for Hamilton and I, for one, can’t wait to see how well they mesh when camp opens up next month(!).
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Architecte-Hockey.com
Another great article Todd. Every serious Devils fan should check out your material. Always informative …. with data supported analysis.
DOOGlas IV, rightful heir to the iron throne