New Jersey Devils notes: On Severson's strong start, Palmieri's struggles, and more
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A few New Jersey Devils thoughts as we continue to navigate our way through a COVID-19 induced break:
Prior to the season Lindy Ruff talked a lot about having a 4th man activate into the play to create another layer of offense. Perhaps no player has benefited more from that than Damon Severson. Among regulars, he ranks 2nd on the Devils in on-ice scoring chances per 60 – behind only Ty Smith, who has been more heavily sheltered – and he is driving a lot of that offense himself. Severson is averaging 4.36 individual chances/60 at 5v5. That is good for 11th among 197 eligible defenders, and slots him ahead of names like Roman Josi, Brent Burns, and Seth Jones; guys you always see up in the play. Severson has a very gifted offensive skillset – his in-zone passing is excellent, and he has a potent shot – and Ruff’s way of play is allowing him to maximize it. Perhaps most importantly, Severson is getting heavily involved without sacrificing at the defensive end. New Jersey is actually giving up shots and chances at a lesser rate with Severson on the ice than any other Devils defenseman. He has fit like a glove in Ruff’s system.
Kyle Palmieri has taken a lot of heat for his production, or lack there of, in the early going. Understandably so. With guys like Nico Hischier out of the lineup, Palmieri was being relied upon even more heavily than usual; and he didn’t contribute. At times, he looked quite out of sync in the process. I’m not too concerned yet, though, because there are signs of light at the end of the tunnel. Believe it not, Palmieri leads Devils forwards in shot attempts and scoring chances. He has generated more scoring chances than the likes of Mark Stone, Ryan O’Reilly, Blake Wheeler, Sebastian Aho, and Evgeni Malkin. This despite playing fewer games and dealing with truly awful usage at times, such as playing net front on the power play. I’m not excusing Palmieri for his lack of output to date. He does need to contribute more. All I’m saying is, based on the looks he is generating, he deserves better than he has gotten thus far. If he continues to get chances, the goals will start to come.
Jesper Bratt has looked nothing short of spectacular since jumping into the lineup. He is currently rocking a 67.5 Corsi For%, 66.6 Expected Goals For%, and the Devils are generating an absurd amount of shots/chances with him on the ice. He has been as involved as (almost) anyone, too, averaging seven primary shot contributions per game at 5v5. Only Jack Hughes (8.13) has more. Nobody else up front is overly close, with Michael McLeod ranking 3rd with 5.13 per game. We are dealing with small sample sizes in Bratt’s case, however, it sure looks like he is ready to take a big step forward. It’s too bad the Devils couldn’t have figured out a way to go term with him; his next deal will be costly.
Yegor Sharangovich was touted as a solid two-way player. He played in all situations in Binghamton and in the KHL, and part of the sell was his complete game. We haven’t seen that in New Jersey; at least not yet. Yeezy has an offensive zone start% of ~75% and yet he ranks 2nd to last on the team in high-danger chances against per 60. His defensive struggles don’t appear to be something that can simply be put on linemates, either, as on the PK he ranks dead last in expected goals against/60. I’m not saying he won’t ever be competent in his own zone. He’s just not good there right now. When the Devils get some bodies back – say, Nico Hischier – it’d probably be best to lessen the load on him defensively. He doesn’t need to be forced onto a PK unit while he adjusts to the NHL game.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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Great write-up Todd as always. I like the reference for Mahomes for the discount, though he was awful last night (as were the Chiefs as a whole). There has been a lot of talk about how the Sabres were angry at the NHL for having to play those two matinee games against the Devils despite all those players entering COVID protocol (before and after those games). Is there anything the NHL can realistically do here, because while I understand the Sabres' ire here, I'm not sure if there is any recourse? I am a big Devils fan and I am happy to see them playing again, but I don't really think it was a good idea for both of those games to be played, especially the Sunday game.
Nico's injury had to have been a lot more significant than they let on when it happened back in December. Even with this extra week off it doesn't seem like he is going to be back soon (or at least I haven't seen any stories that suggest he's close to returning). Factor in when it happened and this is turning into a 2+ month long absence. Hoping it was just a bad break and not anything muscular.