Why the New Jersey Devils should push for a long-term deal with Dawson Mercer

Mercer is coming off the worst season of his career. Thus, there could be an opportunity to buy at a low point.

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The New Jersey Devils have done the vast majority of the heavy lifting to get ready for October. Just one big item remains: re-signing Dawson Mercer.

The 22-year-old restricted free agent is coming off a disappointing 2023-24 campaign in which he produced 16 fewer points than he averaged over the first two years of his career. His underlying metrics fell off a cliff as well.

While a step in the wrong direction may give the Devils pause about racing to extend Mercer to a long-term deal, you could argue this buy-low opportunity is the perfect time to strike.

The case for term

For all his faults this past season, Mercer still scored goals very efficiently. He found the back of the net as many times at 5v5 as Mitch Marner, Cole Caufield, Connor Bedard and Tage Thompson, among other stars.

This despite playing just ~140 minutes with Jack Hughes and ~170 minutes with Nico Hischier. It’s not as if Mercer’s goal scoring outputs were a byproduct of being spoonfed minutes with elite centers. That simply wasn’t the case.

I mean, Mercer averaged more goals and points per 60 minutes with Jack Hughes than any other season in his young career. Yes, even his 56-point campaign in 2022-23.

So, while Mercer’s overall numbers took a hit, he was better than ever at producing with Hughes by his side. He also scored more than a goal per 60 with Nico, which is a very solid rate.

The offense was still there when put in a position to succeed in the top-6. Due to injuries and other factors, that just didn’t happen enough.

The Devils have four undisputed stars up front. If you’re power ranking the team’s forwards based on who should play in the top-6, I think Mercer is clearly No. 1 on the list beyond the core 4.

Put another way, he’s very likely going to be in the top-6 stapled to either Hughes or Hischier at 5v5.

If that’s the plan – and there’s no reason to think otherwise – then Mercer’s total production is going to rise. Thus, so will the cost of re-signing him down the road.

And if the Devils believe Mercer can take another step with Sheldon Keefe as his coach – a player of a similar archetype, Michael Bunting, put up 63 points attached to a star center in his first year under Keefe – then, again, a bridge deal is only going to cost you more down the road.

Yes, a rising cap should mean more available dollars. But the Devils have made massive commitments to a handful of players and still need to deal with Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec in the not too distant future.

The money disappears quickly with so many players making big money; you need to have guys providing surplus value around them.

Taking a bit of a risk on Mercer now increases the chances he’s earning less than he’s worth moving forward.

What might an extension look like?