Ty Smith is off to a rough start
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Today’s post was written by C.J. TURTORO. You can find C.J. on Twitter @CJTDevil.
One of the most reliable catch-all metrics for NHL defensemen is Evolving-Hockey’s xGAR. It is an estimate for how many goals of value a player’s overall game is worth.
In terms of xGAR per value, the New Jersey Devils can be proud that their big ticket defenceman, Dougie Hamilton, continues to dominate the league in this, and other statistics.
Among defencemen with 50+ minutes played this season, Dougie Hamilton is 4th among all NHL defenders in xGAR contributed per hour. Unfortunately, if you look at the mirror end of the leaderboard, you also see that another Devil – Ty Smith – ranks 4th to last.
The Devils have a lower share of expected goals (45.87%) with Smith on the ice than with any other defender. That’s even if you include Mason Geertsen (48.0%), who appears not to possess the ability to hold a hockey stick with both hands. And it’s not like the Devils haven’t paid the price -- they’ve been outscored 1-5 in his ~100 minutes at 5-on-5.
Even one of his most valuable skills from last season -- getting his shot to find a way to the net -- seems not to be in his arsenal at present.
In six games, and 114 minutes, Ty Smith has attempted 20 shots. Only five have even hit the net. Not gone in the net … hit the net. He has either missed the net completely or been blocked 75% of the time. That 25% success rate is lowest on the team by far (Siegenthaler is 2nd worst at 40%) and, of the 181 defenders with 100+ minutes, it is 5th worst. He leads only the offensive powerhouses: Andy Greene, Olli Maatta, Brian Dumoulin, and Nick Seeler. Oh, he also has no goals and no assists.
Last year, I had to be Debbie Downer when Smith got off to his historic start because I had to point out that his defensive numbers looked really troubling and when the points dried up, we’d start to notice those flaws more.
Eventually, his performance earned him a promotion alongside Damon Severson in a steady top-4 role. When sheltered, that pairing steamrolled bottom-6s from opposing teams. As they were given more responsibility, though, the numbers did not follow them. The roller coaster that was my assessment of Smith in the 2020-21 year landed firmly on ... *shrug emoji*.
This season, the points aren’t there, and boy oh boy are we noticing some of the warts. In addition to his analytic struggles, he also has had several fairly egregious errors that would probably nauseate anyone who had the misfortune of using their “eye test” at the time of the faux pas. This, of course, culminated Friday with him handing the game to the Kings on a silver platter with an inexcusable turnover behind the net during 3v3 OT.
Normally, this is the part of the article where I offer solutions. The problem is that I have to have solutions to offer in order to write about them.
In this case, I’m not really sure there’s anything for anyone to do other than Smith himself. A lot of the mistakes appear to be the puck just hopping off his stick. I’m hoping that this case of the yips fades as he gets his sea legs under him after not having a full camp to prepare for the season. He should be first one in and last one out of practice until he starts hitting the net and completing his passes.
Ty is under 6’0’’, not physical, and cannot kill penalties. If he’s going to make it in this league, it’s because of his puck-movement and his shot. Right now, he can’t hit the broad side of a barn with his shot, and he’s committing Subban-esque turnovers in transition and at the blueline.
If he doesn’t improve soon, he’s either going to be buried in a seldom-used 3rd pair, or ride the pine until his replacement lowers the bar enough for him to be able to jump it.
The good news is that he had probably his best game of the season in San Jose. However, that was on a sheltered pairing with Colton White. That should continue while Hamilton is out. When he returns, it’ll be on Smith to prove he can maintain that efficiency in a pairing that will likely have more responsibility; such as one alongside Damon Severson.
Smith’s skating from the back end is one of the keys to making sure the Devils’ depth can rack up scoring chance advantages against bottom-6’s. They are better when Smith is feeling it. And with a gauntlet of a schedule coming up, he needs to do it right now. Here’s hoping that Saturday, not Friday, was the sign of things to come.