Three takeaways from the New Jersey Devils' contract grade

The Devils dropped four spots in Dom Luszczyszyn's annual rankings of team contract efficiency.

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By David Mudrak (@MuddyOpinions)

On Thursday, Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic posted his yearly contract efficiency rankings for all 32 NHL teams.

To rank all of the teams, Dom takes the model value (what a player should technically be paid on the open market) and multiplies any surplus amount (positive or negative) over the course of the contract, giving the player a grade based on how much positive or negative surplus they will accrue over the life of the contract. All non-ELC contracts are graded, providing a full grade for a team.

In the article, the Devils ranked ninth—just ahead of the Dallas Stars and one place behind the Toronto Maple Leafs. Dom notes that Timo Meier, Ondrej Palat, Jonas Siegenthaler, and Dougie Hamilton's less-than-ideal seasons contributed to the team’s slipping down the list. What else can we learn from the rankings? 

Long-term contracts are key

This one will be obvious to most readers, but it is worth repeating based on the Devils' situation. The most valuable contracts—like Jack Hughes’—pay a younger, high-performing player less than what he is worth during his prime years. By signing young players to long-term contracts, teams can often lock in a rate that will be less than what that player deserves after they grow into their full potential.

There is always some risk involved as it is possible that the player does not grow, regresses, or develops injury problems, and the team is stuck with a seven or eight-year deal that weighs down the entire roster. However, more often than not, taking the bet on young, high-performing players is worth the risk. 

For a long time, Nathan MacKinnon had the best deal in the league because he signed the contract before he became the player he is today. The same is true for Jack Hughes, who currently has the second-best contract in the league. 

Tom Fitzgerald has shown that he is aware of the importance of locking up young talent, as he has done just that in contracts for Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and even Timo Meier.

With Dawson Mercer up for a new contract right now and Luke Hughes and Šimon Nemec close behind, it is essential to the team’s success that Fitzgerald does everything in his power to lock up these players to long-term contracts that can help the team now and in the future. 

While a max-term contract was almost automatic for Jack Hughes, it has become much more difficult with the team already spending close to the salary cap.

Given the situation, Fitzgerald may have to make tough choices and sign Mercer or other young players to bridge deals to keep the whole team together. 

However, I hope that Fitzgerald tries his best to avoid that scenario. I would prefer that he take the risk and sign all three players to eight-year deals when they are able to sign them.

It is likely worth moving some players and money around to lock in what could be core parts of a championship team - especially in the case of Luke Hughes and Šimon Nemec, as they could be the face of the defense for the next decade.

Team’s pay for experience and holes