Three reasons to be optimistic about the New Jersey Devils in 2021
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Finally. Finally, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
While nothing is yet official, TSN’s Darren Dreger floated out January 13th as the new targeted – and expected – start date for the 2021 NHL campaign.
That would mean we’re less than three weeks away from the New Jersey Devils opening training camp (hockey stories!), and a hair over a month from watching them in action for the first time since March.
With the 2021 NHL season actually within reach, I can start writing about, you know, the 2021 NHL season.
Today, I’m going to take a closer look at three reasons you should be optimistic about the New Jersey Devils heading into the year.
Goaltending
I can not stress enough how promising the Devils’ tandem of Mackenzie Blackwood and Corey Crawford looks. We all know about their raw talent, and the numbers might paint an even brighter picture.
Last season 54 netminders logged at least 1,000 minutes at 5v5. Mackenzie Blackwood ranked 3rd in high-danger save percentage, and Corey Crawford ranked 5th. Both guys posted strong raw totals and excelled against the highest quality of shots.
I’ve heard a lot of ‘wait until Crawford is playing behind New Jersey’s defense!’ in recent months and that argument, if you will, holds no weight.
Crawford led the league last year – by a country mile – in high-danger shots faced per 60. He squared up against 9.01/60. Henrik Lundqvist ranked 2nd at 8.09 while Mikko Koskinen sat 3rd at 7.86/60.
Nobody came close to Crawford in terms of the frequency of facing top-tier shots. The volume didn’t prevent him from being one of the elite in terms of stopping them, and he still managed a .917+ overall SV% for the seventh time over the last eight seasons.
It is a good bet at least one of Blackwood or Crawford will provide high-end goaltending. If the other is even a little above average, the Devils should have one of the best team save percentages in the league.
Fun fact: all 10 of the team leaders in 5v5 SV% made the play-in round, and nine of them advanced past it/were playing in the ‘1st round’ of the playoffs.
Great goaltending can take you quite a way, and the Devils figure to have it.
A new system
Say what you will about the Lindy Ruff hire; I had my reservations about it. Even so, I’m still excited. Why? Lindy Ruff is not John Hynes. That may sound blunt, but it’s honestly not meant to be. I simply think Ruff is a much better fit for the organization.
Hynes liked to play a low-event, defense-first style of game. It helped him squeeze juice out of the team when there wasn’t much talent on board, however, I think it honestly held them back towards the end of his tenure.
Simply put, the Devils personnel in no way aligned with the way Hynes wanted his team to play. He was about puck management – no turnovers! – and out-working opponents in effort to grind out a 2-1 win.
Call me crazy but that doesn’t seem like the optimal style to win when you have Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, Nikita Gusev, and co. on the roster. They like to slip past opponents and make skill plays with the puck in space; not dump it into the corner and try to win a battle against David Savard.
Ruff allows his skill players to make plays. He did it in Buffalo and he did in Dallas. If anything, at times, he’d be too lenient in giving his offensive players free rein.
After years of lifeless offensive performances, and feeling like I’d be more entertained watching paint dry, I’d honestly take that. Even more so now that the Devils can bank on a save if the players make a mistake.
As much as a lengthy off-season to improve, and natural progression, will help the kids take the next step, I think they’ll benefit from a style that plays much more to their strengths.
Improved defense
New Jersey’s team defense has sucked for a while now. I think it hit a new low last season, though.
The Devils ranked 30th in 5v5 attempts against/60, 29th in chances against/60, and 29th in goals against/60 (despite Blackwood standing on his head most nights). They were, in a word, abysmal.
While GM Tom Fitzgerald wasn’t able to bring in any marquee names, the defense is in a much better spot than it was a few months ago.
Fitzgerald was able to pry Ryan Murray from Columbus for next to nothing. Injuries are a definite concern for him, however, he is very solid when healthy.
His even-strength defensive GAR was 28th highest among blueliners last season, per Evolving-Hockey.com. He may not provide a ton offensively but the guy can defend.
Dmitry Kulikov will be an upgrade on a depth pairing as well; at least in the defensive zone. Believe it or not, his defensive GAR was on par with Hampus Lindholm last season. He isn’t going to do much – anything? – in transition or offensively. His impacts are actually very poor in those areas. So much so that it essentially erases his defensive work. With that said, the right partner could help offset some of those corners, which brings me to my next point…
Ty Smith will be a full-timer this season! I don’t expect anything close to what we saw from Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes as rookies, but I’m confident he will be able to contribute right away. At the very least, he should be a clear upgrade over depth guys the Devils trotted out last season like Mirco Mueller, Connor Carrick, and Dangerous Dakota Mermis.
Beyond Smith, who will take time to develop, there aren’t really any sexy new faces. But, make no mistake, the defense is better.
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Numbers from NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com.
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nice write up - I love the optimism, and the fact that the season might actually start soon! I've been reading your stuff for a while though, Todd, so I'm scared about what the next article might be: 3 reasons to be skeptical about the devils in 2021?
it seems like Fitz did exactly what he said he was going to do when he got the job - fill in the holes and put a competitive team together that should be able to scrap and claw for a playoff spot.
Regarding Ty Smith, I would be interested to hear how you envision his season going, though I guess you kinda just did that. Seeing how Makar and Q Hughes were able to come in and control play so quickly, it is hard for me to get a sense of where expectations for Smith should land. seems like pairing him with kulikov should help enable his offensive abilities.