Three players the New Jersey Devils should avoid on the trade market
Three players the New Jersey Devils should avoid on the trade market
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The Stanley Cup could be awarded to Tampa Bay as soon as tonight, which means we’re *this* close to the off-season frenzy beginning.
We should get the usual summer fun; but with huge wrinkles thrown in like a) plenty of teams up against a flat-cap and; b) the impact of an expansion draft.
Those two things, along with a pent up urge to make changes (a lot of teams weren’t given the financial flexibility to do what they wanted a year ago), should lead to a lot of activity.
This summer’s trade bait list, if you will, features a lot of notable names. I’ll touch on some I like – especially as rumors start to heat up in the coming weeks – but, for now, I want to zero in on three trade candidates the Devils should avoid.
LHD - Nate Schmidt - $5.95M per through 2024-25
Schmidt was once what you could consider an analytics darling. He did very well in a somewhat limited role in Washington and popped when deservedly given a chance to play big minutes in Vegas; at least over his first couple years there.
He reached the peak of his powers in 2018-19. His level of play dripped dramatically the following year and things only worsened in Vancouver.
Now, the Canucks are a tirefire. It’s fair to wonder if Schmidt could give a little more elsewhere.
But that’s not a gamble I’d be looking to make. Schmidt is 29 now. Even if he rebounds to an extent, it’s very likely his best hockey is behind him.
Schmidt is not only a depreciating player, but one signed for four seasons at an expensive price point.
It’d be one thing to take a shot on him for a year or two. Four years, though, in a flat-cap world where most teams are right up against it? No thanks!
Better, and cheaper, players will become available. I don’t care really what the cost of acquisition is. Taking on that contract for a player whose performance drastically dipped in consecutive years is a terrible idea.
Hard pass.
**LHD - Oliver Ekman-Larsson - $8.25M per through 2026-27
A few years ago I’d be excited about the idea of trading for OEL. Now I view him as the ultimate poison pill.
While his point totals have remained relatively strong, his overall impacts have not.
OEL posted a *negative* GAR in two of the last three years. The exception came in 2019-20, where OEL was worth +3.6 GAR; on par with the likes of Jon Merrill, Juuso Riikola, and Alex Goligoski. Encouraging stuff!
His relative numbers were also quite poor over that three-year span. Arizona wasn’t exactly a good team and yet they fared noticeably better without OEL on the ice.
Their share of goals was more than 5% higher, while their xGF% was nearly 4% higher, with OEL catching breathers on the bench.
What’s especially concerning is that he wasn’t even fed to the wolves in terms of usage. Two years ago he played ~35% of his minutes vs elite players (compare that to 28% vs bottom feeders). This past season OEL played only 18% of his minutes vs elite competition, per PuckIQ. He still couldn’t get results.
And, honestly, I don’t care if he played stiff competition the entire time. Only five defenders make more money per year. Five. OEL should not only be able to handle himself in tough minutes, but excel. He has not done that for quite some time and, at 29, I doubt that ever changes.
I know he’s a big name but, even with salary retained, I would stay far, far away.
The only way I’d even consider trading for OEL is if it’s as a sacrifice to land a star like Jakob Chychrun. If the Coyotes don’t want to do that – understandable – then they can try to find another suitor elsewhere.
RD - Rasmus Ristolainen - $5.4 million through 2021-22
CJ recently picked apart the idea of trading for Ristolainen, which I fully agree with.
I don’t care that he was once a top-10 pick. I don’t care that he’s ‘only 26’. I don’t care that there is only one year remaining on his contract.
Ristolainen is a bad player. The Devils would be worse off with him on, which seems far from ideal with ownership and management wishing to see the team take a step forward.
The Sabres have sucked Ristolainen’s entire career and yet they’ve been noticeably worse with him on the ice; over and over and over and over.
Shot attempts? Negative impact seven of eight years. Expected Goals? Negative impact seven of eight years. Actual goals? He hasn’t been great there either, especially of late. Buffalo’s share over the last three years was 5.28% lower with Ristolainen out there, which is quite impressive considering it’s not remotely high without him.
If Ristolainen, a top-10 pick making big money, can’t out-perform teammates on consistently bad teams, how is he supposed to positively impact a team on the upswing? I don’t see it.
And please don’t cite his point totals. They’re inefficient points that come from playing 57 minutes per game.
From 2018-21, Ristolainen’s closest comparable in 5v5 points/60 include: Marcus Petterson, Adam Pelech, Caleb Jones, Brendan Smith, Connor Murphy, Jamie Oleksiak, Travis Hamonic and Sami Vatanen. Talk about offensive dynamos.
If the production is the ‘good’ thing and that’s the efficiency it comes with, we’re not exactly looking at an appealing package.
I don’t think Risto is a good player. I don’t even think he’s a mediocre player.
Trading literally *one* piece of remote value for him is a bad idea. There will be dozens of better defenders available cheaper in free agency.
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numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com, CapFriendly.com, PuckIQ.com, and Evolving-Hockey.com