The New Jersey Devils shouldn't target Matt Dumba

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Matt Dumba is one of the bigger names that has surfaced on the trade market in recent months.

The one rumored hesitation Minnesota Wild GM Bill Guerin had about trading Dumba was the possibility of moving him to plug another hole, only for Jonas Brodin to end up walking from the team a year from now.

That scenario playing out would quickly turn one of the league’s better defense cores into one of the worst.

With Brodin putting pen to paper on a massive extension with the Wild, Guerin now has the peace of mind to trade Dumba – should the right deal present itself – without worrying about the state of his blueline. He’d still have Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter, and Brodin to fall back on.

I think trading Dumba is a realistic possibility, especially if Guerin is hoping to go with the expansion approach that allows him to protect the most players (you can go 7F, 3D, 1G, or 8 F+D, 1G).

If Dumba is made readily available on the trade market, he will no doubt garner a lot of attention.

He is mobile, routinely scores 10+ goals, and is prone to landing thumping hits in open ice. Factor in he’s a young 26 with three more years on his deal and he checks off a lot of boxes GMs look for.

While the Devils defense core would certainly be better with Dumba on it, I’m not sure he is *the* guy they should be investing serious assets into.

Put simply, he is flawed in a lot of the same areas the Devils already are.

Dumba has spent parts of seven seasons in the NHL. The Wild have allowed 5v5 goals at a higher rate with Dumba on the ice than without in all seven seasons. That’s a red flag.

So, too, is the fact the Wild gave up scoring chances at a higher rate with Dumba on the ice in six of the seven seasons. We’re looking at seven of seven when discussing Grade A chances.

It’s not like the Wild conceded more goals with Dumba by fluke. They were giving up more chances, and high-danger looks, on a consistent basis.

Dumba’s not a good defensive player. He’s also not much of a play driver. He has negatively impacted Minnesota’s share of the Expected Goals in six of the last seven years.

While Dumba’s offensive impact is strong – particularly on the power play – his shortcomings defensively really eat into the value he brings to the table.

In Will Butcher, Damon Severson and, potentially, Ty Smith (especially as a rookie), the Devils already have a few defenders who move the puck but can get into trouble without it.

I don’t think they should be significantly dipping into their war chest of assets to acquire another player who fits that description.

numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com