The New Jersey Devils shouldn't seriously pursue Dougie Hamilton
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The 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs haven’t reached their end and, yet, the off-season is already starting to kick into high gear.
This morning we had our first bomb, so to speak, as UFA-to-be Dougie Hamilton was granted permission to speak to other teams about a contract.
The idea, of course, being Carolina can get an asset or two back in a sign-and-trade should Hamilton wish to sign an eight-year deal elsewhere.
Hamilton will no doubt be a hot commodity. Name-brand blueliners very rarely hit the open market, let alone one who has produced 10+ goals and ~40+ points in seven consecutive seasons.
If he elects to stay with the Hurricanes, it’s not going to be for a lack of interest. I imagine 10 teams – potentially even more – will make a serious pitch to Hamilton.
Despite the need for an impact defender, I’m not sure the New Jersey Devils should be among that group.
Hamilton turns 28 in a few days. That hardly makes him washed up, however, more players than not have peaked by that point.
@DTMAboutHeart, who works in the analytics department for the savvy Colorado Avalanche, shared a chart years ago that illustrates how aging curves work in the NHL.
Let me preface this by saying there are obviously exceptions to the rule. Some players develop a little later and others can sustain peak performance, or close to it, longer than others.
But, on average, we see the best hockey of a player’s career from 23-25. The 26-28 gap isn’t far off, and we start to see a more noticeable dip after that (there’s a reason Nazem Kadri, 30, was the lone 30+ top-9 F/top-6 D on Colorado’s roster).
So, Hamilton’s at the point where the dip is going to start to become more evident. That’s no doubt the reason we’re in this situation at all. Carolina is a sharp, data-driven organization. While I don’t doubt they have interest in bringing Hamilton back – losing him hurts their chances of contending over the next few years – it’s going to have to be on their terms. If they can’t get somewhat of a discount, he’s moving on.
But back to the point. The New Jersey Devils are not contenders. And they still won’t be for a little while.
I do expect them to take a step forward next season, and progress pretty steadily in the coming years, but they’re not going to do real damage until Alexander Holtz, Dawson Mercer, Nolan Foote, and their top prospects emerge as consistent contributors in meaningful roles.
By that point, Hamilton is on the wrong side of 30. As shown in the chart above, the fall-off we see from players by their early 30s is quite noticeable. You can argue Hamilton is worth, say, $9 million now but he almost certainly won’t be in, say, three years and it’ll only get worse over time.
When the Devils are ready to really contend, Hamilton’s might be quite overpaid. It’s as simple as that.
Teams like Vegas can give big money, long-term deals to top players – see Alex Pietrangelo – because they’re ready to contend from the get-go and in a situation where it makes sense to sacrifice long-term for now. The Devils are not.
You could try and argue Hamilton will be an exception to the rule and age more gracefully. That may be true. But the same was probably said of many of Hamilton’s statistical comparables, and that group looks pretty rough.
Look at the names. P.K. Subban, Brent Burns, Shea Weber and the like were elite players. They sort of carried that ‘beast’ label, too, in that they logged insane minutes, are workout freaks, take care of themselves, etc. And, by and large, they’ve aged quite poorly.
If Hamilton’s going to follow anything close to that trajectory…no thanks!
In general, I am in favor of getting elite talent whenever you can and making it work after that. But the Devils just aren’t far enough along that it makes sense to give Hamilton an eight-year deal worth big money.
Not to mention, they’d have to part with an asset or two to go down that path. It’s hard to handicap what that asset will be but moving, say, a 2nd round pick so they can hand a huge contract to a player who’ll be overpaid, and in clear decline, by the time they are ready to contend is probably not a great idea.
I love Hamilton. But he’s not right for the Devils.
numbers via PuckPedia.com and HockeyDB.com
what do you think we would need to give up to get get Cal Foote? Would you pursue him?