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The New Jersey Devils will be picking three times in the 1st round of this year’s draft. At least if they want to.
Already with the 7th overall pick in their back pocket, the Devils officially laid claim to a pair of others on Friday.
The first came when Taylor Hall, and the Arizona Coyotes, upset John Hynes and the Nashville Predators. New Jersey was slated to get the pick so long as Arizona a) didn’t lose to Nashville and then; b) win the 1st overall pick via lottery. With Arizona advancing, that’s obviously no longer a concern. The pick is New Jersey’s.
An additional 1st rounder was sent the Devils’ way when the Vancouver Canucks came from 3-1 down and went on to eliminate the Minnesota Wild on the first shift of overtime. Had Vancouver lost the game, and eventually the series, this 1st round pick wouldn’t be transferred until next season.
Quite honestly, I don’t think the optimal result happened in either case for the Devils. I would have preferred Arizona bowing out to Nashville, thus giving the Devils an 87.50% chance of claiming another top-10 pick this year.
A 100% chance of a 1st rounder, likely in the 16-20 range, is great and all but that’s likely not cutting it for potential targets like two-way centerman Anton Lundell, or prolific offensive winger Seth Jarvis. I’d have taken my chances.
As for the Vancouver pick, I get the appeal to having the pick now. I do. But this is another situation where I’d rather have waited and taken my chances.
I understand Vancouver has some great young players. That didn’t stop them from finishing 20th in Goals For%, and 23rd in Expected Goals For%, this season. They’re not a very good team at 5v5 and they don’t have the money to make changes to fix that this off-season.
I also have questions about whether Jacob Markstrom will duplicate this season’s success. He is on the wrong side of 30 and is coming off his best season in terms of save percentage and Quality Start percentage. If those numbers dip a little, with similar level of play in front of him, I’m not sure Vancouver is a playoff team. They’re also very top heavy and all it would take is one injury to derail their campaign.
I think there’s a very real chance next year’s pick will end up in the lottery so, thus, I’d have preferred that pick. It is sort of like the Devils getting a sure 2nd liner instead of a solid odds at a top liner. You’re still happy with the 2nd liner, but left wanting more.
At any rate, the downside to the Arizona and Vancouver results are still pretty damn good.
Assuming Arizona and Vancouver fall to two of Vegas, Colorado, St. Louis or Dallas, each additional pick will fall in the 16-20 range.
As a draft buff, the possibility of picking three times in the top-20 is pretty damn exciting.
I realize it is possible, if not likely, one of the picks is packaged to find somebody who can help now and in the future but, again, it’s great to have multiple 1st rounders to fall back on.
Lundell or Jarvis are unlikely to be available for the Devils in that range but GM Tom Fitzgerald will still have a pretty good crop to choose from.
Kaiden Guhle, an awesome defender with plus-skating and transitional play, could be there. So could Connor Zary, a two-way centerman with some scoring pop. If the Devils were to pass on Alexander Holtz, and wanted to add a natural finisher, Sarnia’s Jacob Perreault could be of interest. There will be options.
If, for example, the Devils were to leave the (imaginary) draft floor with Marco Rossi, Guhle, and an established player in his early-to-mid 20s, I would call it a very successful night. And that’s definitely in the realm of possibility.
October can’t come soon enough.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Hockey-Reference.com
Fingers crossed hall resigns in Arizona and we get another 1st rounder...
As exciting as it was to have 2 possible top-10 picks... i'm keeping my fingers crossed that we end up with 3 in the top 20 at this point. We've been pretty lucky with our draft lottery luck so i can't feel too sorry for myself.