The New Jersey Devils have hit a fork in the road with Dawson Mercer

The Devils need to change how they use Mercer, or trade him, to get the most out of him as an asset.

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Dawson Mercer couldn’t have gotten off to a more promising start to his NHL career.

He recorded 42 points in his rookie campaign and followed that up with 27 goals and 57 points as a sophomore. A remarkable percentage of that production came during 5v5 play.

Mercer tied for 49th in 5v5 goals over his first two seasons, slotting him ahead of star players like Artemi Panarin, Kevin Fiala, Matt Boldy, and Dylan Larkin.

Mercer’s scoring efficiency – coupled with his non-stop motor and work rate off-puck – had many believing the sky was the limit and that he could be a cornerstone piece for the New Jersey Devils.

He has since followed up two promising seasons with a pair of campaigns most would label as disappointing.

While he scored a respectable 39 goals over two years – and played in every game – his overall production dipped, and he didn't look nearly as noticeable.

What changed?

Usage, usage, usage. I’m not going to sit here and tell you that’s the only difference between the Dawson Mercer that lit up the scoresheet and the one that has left everyone wanting more, but it’s certainly the biggest.

Mercer spent just under 570 (5v5) minutes with Hughes over his first two seasons in the NHL. He averaged 2.11 points per 60 minutes of play, which is low-end 1st line production.

The Devils proved very difficult to stop with that duo on the ice and, despite poor goaltending, they helped outscore opponents by a couple of goals along the way.

Be it injuries, changes in personnel, or other factors, Mercer has not gotten nearly the same workload with Hughes over the last couple of years. They played just 211 minutes together at 5v5 from 2023-25.

And, no, it’s not because Mercer didn’t perform and played himself out of a spot on Jack’s line. He produced every time he had the chance.

Mercer averaged 1.7 goals and 2.55 points per 60 minutes with Hughes over the last couple of seasons. His production efficiency was much higher with Hughes than in his first two years in the league.

The Devils were able to get results as well, controlling 53% of the scoring chances and 62% of the goal share.

Whether focusing on Mercer’s production or the on-ice outputs, the numbers have been every bit as good – if not better – over the last couple of years.

Mercer’s overall results look much worse because he hasn’t gotten nearly the same opportunity. When he has played with Hughes, he’s made those minutes count.

What now?