The New Jersey Devils didn't improve much defensively

Be sure to join the Discord channel to talk hockey, and everything else, with me and fellow subscribers.

Today’s post was written by C.J. TURTORO. You can find C.J. on Twitter @CJTDevil.

---

To clarify this gratuitously provocative title before I move on at all, I’m not suggesting the defenders didn’t improve for the New Jersey Devils.

I’m saying that team defense is roughly the same. In other words, we could expect the Devils to give up a similar amount of chances this coming season. Let me explain...

In short, the value that we have added -- even via blueline talent-- disproportionately lands on the offensive side of the puck. Meanwhile, the value that we’ve lost -- even among forwards -- lands on the defensive side.

Here’s one example of how to quantify what I’m saying as it pertains to the defenders. Evolving-Hockey projects the value of each player for the coming year in several categories including even-strength offense/defense, powerplay offense, and shorthanded defense. For even-strength defense, the Devils return their 2 worst-projected players in P.K. Subban (-0.5) and Ty Smith (-0.6), and let 4 of their top 6 walk in Kulikov (+1.8), Murray (+1.6), Butcher (+0.5), and Vatanen (+0.4).

The shiniest new acquisition, Dougie Hamilton, projects to be the most offensively valuable defenceman in the NHL next season with 8.2 projected goals of offensive value at even strength and 2 more on the powerplay. But he’s only projected to be slightly more valuable than Kulikov defensively and isn’t likely to offer much on the PK.

Some may point to Ryan Graves as a potential boon defensively. While he’s a good physical presence, he’s actually only projected to be worth 0.3 goals defensively at evens. So, on net, we actually lost defensive value this offseason even though our defencemen appear to have radically improved. 

Among the forwards, nothing much has changed, except the Devils lost a reliable veteran pivot and PKer (Travis Zajac) a 200-ft top six winger (Kyle Palmieri), and two up-and-coming gritty forwards (Nathan Bastian and Mikhail Maltsev).

We added Tomas Tatar, who is very talented, but, like Hamilton, that value is disproportionately directed toward the offensive side of the ice.

Dougie and Graves are projected to combine for 3,000 minutes this year, roughly the same as Butcher, Kulikov, and Murray combined, and they are expected to be worth 12 goals -- seven more than the five their predecessors offer.

But in even strength defense we actually lose 1.3 goals of value; and that’s compounded by the fact that the new guys also take more penalties and kill less effectively.

I sometimes get labeled as being a bit of a Debbie Downer, and that will no doubt continue from this article and the last paragraph, in particular, but I don’t actually mean this to be a pessimistic article, just a clarifying one. 

As I’ve said, the Devils did improve this off-season. But it’s not immediately clear that the talent we gained exceeds the talent we lost in terms of specifically preventing shots, chances, and goals against. Instead what’s happened is that we’ve just increased the likelihood that we will score even more than our opponents.

There is also a caveat to this. Ruff’s system is unique with regards to how much it depends on offensive possession as a means of defense.

If you look at the Devils’ most valuable defensive forwards under Ruff, you’ll see Bratt and Hughes -- the two best transition forwards -- atop the list.

That’s because they are so good at generating possession time in the offensive zone, that the opponent never gets a chance to pick up momentum in the opposite direction.

If the Devils can leverage the possession excellence of guys like Hamilton and Tatar to play “keepaway,” we may genuinely see a defensive improvement simply because of the way Ruff’s system is designed. 

And the last big addition to this equation is a legitimate 1B goalie in Jonathan Bernier, along with a hope that Mackenzie Blackwood can resume his previous, encouraging trajectory, after a very strange 2021 season that saw him contract COVID and draw the majority of the starts after a bizarre preseason retirement of newly acquired Corey Crawford.

Our defense and goaltending were both poor last season, but the goaltending was much worse (bottom-3 as opposed to merely bottom half). And improvement there will go a long way towards improving the defense as a whole.

If this article looks stupid at the end of the season (which I hope it does!) it will likely be that Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Tatar, Hamilton, and Smith were able to pull the Devils into the top-10 (or higher!) in possession ratio, and/or the goalies were able to hold their own for the first time since Cory Schnieder’s prime.