The Devils should keep an eye on Anthony Mantha

Alex Chauvancy dives into why the 28-year-old winger could be a worthwhile value buy this summer.

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By Alex Chauvancy (@AlexC_THW)

The New Jersey Devils' 2022-23 season has come and gone. Now the focus moves to the off-season and how to improve the roster for 2023-24.

Re-signing Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier will have an impact on how general manager Tom Fitzgerald approaches the summer. For this exercise let's assume they re-sign both players, which seems to be the most likely outcome. 

If the Devils re-sign both, there's less work to do up front. But I still think Fitzgerald would like to add more scoring, specifically in a top-nine role. If he does, it'd likely be someone with a bit more size. 

One player who fits the criteria – and will probably be available through a trade this summer – is Anthony Mantha.

He struggled with the Washington Capitals this season, totalling 11 goals and 27 points in 67 games and falling out of favor with head coach Peter Laviolette. When you peek under the hood, there's plenty to suggest the 6-foot-5, 234-pound winger has something left to offer. 

Mantha's underlyings are still solid

It's not a surprise that Mantha struggled a bit in 2022-23. The Capitals were a far cry from the contender they had been in previous years, partly because they had significant injuries to players like Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson that prevented them from ever finding their footing. 

Still, Mantha posted some encouraging underlying numbers, totaling a 52.68 expected goals percentage (xG%) at five-on-five. He was creating scoring opportunities, averaging 3.65 high-danger chances per hour, the most he's generated since 2019-20 when he was with the Detroit Red Wings. 

Part of the reason Mantha didn't score much is that his most common line, with Lars Eller and Marcus Johansson, couldn't put the puck in the net if their lives depended on it. In about 100 minutes together, they scored only three times on 5.56 expected goals while shooting 4.75 percent at five-on-five. They consistently outplayed their opponents, too, posting an xG% just above 57 percent. They just couldn't score. 

That's probably part of why Mantha began to fall out of favor with Laviolette, but he was playing well. It wasn't just in numbers like xG%, either. His microstats check out.

When looking at how he'd fit with the Devils, it's important to see if he can generate off the rush. Though not Jack Hughes or Jesper Bratt, Mantha ranked in the 62nd percentile in rush shots and 60th percentile in rush offense. That's one box checked off. 

Another area where Mantha excelled is generating shots off high-danger passes, ranking in the 89th percentile. If he plays on a line with Hughes or Nico Hischier, he will get plenty of high-danger passes fed to him.

Even on the third line with someone like Ondrej Palát, he'd fare well since Palát is a crafty playmaker. Overall, Mantha grades out well in Corey Sznajder's microstat data. The only aspect where he isn't great is zone entries: 

On a Devils team with plenty of forwards who excel in transition, Mantha won't need to do the heavy lifting with zone entries anyway. He may have struggled this season, but he's only one year removed from producing at a 20-goal, 51-point pace.

There's a fit since I would not be surprised if Fitzgerald wants to add more size up front, even after acquiring Meier.

What would it cost to trade for Mantha? And is he worth the gamble? 

Mantha shouldn’t cost much