The Devils need Subban's offense while Smith works through struggles

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Today’s post was written by ALEX CHAUVANCY. You can find Alex on Twitter @AlexC_THW.

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When the New Jersey Devils acquired P.K. Subban at the 2019 draft, the thought was he'd help lead the turnaround of the team's blueline.

That never materialized the way former Devils general manager Ray Shero envisioned. Subban had the worst season of his career in 2019-20, and the team spiralled to the bottom of the standings, eventually drafting Alexander Holtz with the seventh overall pick at the 2020 draft. 

While he is not the Subban of old, he has made some progress under head coach Lindy Ruff since his career-worst 2019-20 campaign. He's not without his flaws but, with Ty Smith struggling mightily, Subban has helped pick up some of the slack, specifically on offense. And the Devils need him to maintain that production while Smith works through his struggles. 

Subban coming through offensively

In his prime Subban, was one of the top defensemen in the NHL. Even just a year before the trade to the Devils, he was a Norris Trophy finalist with the Nashville Predators. But things quickly went off the rails once he landed in New Jersey. 

Not only was Subban the Devils' least valuable defenseman in 2019-20, but he was one of the least valuable in the league. His goals above replacement (GAR) of -10.1 tied him with Johnny Boychuk for last in the NHL. With that said, his expected GAR of 2 painted a different picture. The biggest reason for the flip? Subban's even-strength offense (EVO) was worth an xGAR of 3.2, while his EVO was worth an actual GAR of -6.3. 

That's not an insignificant difference. So while Subban's actual results were quite poor offensively, they also probably shouldn't have been that bad. 

Though it may not have looked like it on the ice, there was some improvement in Subban's game in 2020-21 under Ruff. He was still facing tough competition, mostly because Ruff had no choice given the roster's makeup. And while Subban's overall GAR was still below replacement level, his EVO GAR much more closely resembled his EVO xGAR (0.6 to 1.5). 

Fast forward to this season, and Subban's EVO xGAR and GAR are about identical (0.5 to 0.6). He's been one of the team's most-efficient five-on-five scorers, averaging 1.65 points per 60 minutes. And he's been particularly productive over the last month, averaging 2.33 points per 60 minutes. Plus, his overall GAR (0.7) is a touch above replacement level, at least so far. 

While PuckIQ hasn't yet updated their quality of competition data for the 2021-22 season, it's probably safe to say Ruff is giving Dougie Hamilton and Ryan Graves the toughest defensive assignments more often than not. That wasn't the case in Subban's first two seasons in New Jersey, and that seems to have been a welcomed change. 

It's also worth noting that Jonas Siegenthaler has been an ideal partner for Subban to start this season. You could argue that Siegenthaler has been the Devils' best defensive defenseman this season. He's first on the team in GAR and xGAR when it comes to EVD. As a pair, they have a Corsi percentage of 52.3 percent and expected goals percentage of 51.75 percent at five-on-five.

Smith and Damon Severson were supposed to be Ruff's second defense pair but it's clear Siegenthaler and Subban have that title at the moment. 

You've probably noticed that 99.99 percent of this article has focused on Subban's offense performance and not his defensive game. That's not an accident. His defensive game is what it is at this point. The Devils aren't going to get a Norris Trophy-caliber defender anymore. That ship has long sailed away. The best they can hope for is an average defender.

But they also don't need Subban to be their go-to defender as he was in his previous two seasons with Graves, Hamilton and even Siegenthaler now on the roster. 

What Ruff and the Devils need from Subban is for him to keep being an offensive defenseman. Ruff's system relies on pushing the pace and being able to attack on the rush more often than not. He needs defensemen who can move the puck and create offense. And Subban has done that, with nine points in his last 13 games. 

That's more or less what the Devils were likely expecting from Smith. But he has just three points in 13 games, all of which came in one game; and he was a healthy scratch in their previous two contests, though it appears he'll return against the Philadelphia Flyers tonight. 

While Smith is off to an awful start, I'd still bet on him figuring it out at some point. Until that happens, the Devils need Subban to keep doing what he's doing offensively.

The Devils can't solely rely on Hamilton to produce offense from the back end. There has to be someone else, and Subban is that player as Ruff and his staff try to get Smith back on track. 

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Advanced stats from NaturalStatTrick, Evolving-Hockey