The Devils have an all-NHL defensive zone weapon – but they're not using it

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By CJ Turtoro (@CJTDevil)

Earlier this season – especially before the re-acquisition of Nathan Bastian –  one of the biggest complaints from fans about deployment (other than inexplicably rostering Mason Geertsen) was the overuse of Michael McLeod.

The narrative among fans – especially analytically-inclined ones – was that the fetishization of faceoffs by the coaching staff led them to overestimate the actual effectiveness of McLeod over the entirety of a shift.

That has somewhat diminished lately because 1) the return of the Super Buddies has made McLeod’s shifts less tragic and; 2) Jack Hughes has relegated McLeod back to a comfortable 4C rather than the overmatched 3C he had slotted as during the injury.

However, the narrative should probably continue, because he’s still being overused. And he’s being overused for likely the same reasons as before – the staff thinks his faceoff prowess and physical play makes him a more valuable defensive asset than he is.

First, let’s establish the scope of the problem. McLeod was and is being given the number of minutes you’d expect from a middle-six center. On The Athletic’s player cards he’s classified as “middle-six”, and according to Hockeyviz, McLeod’s use peaked at 2C-level, but remains at 2C/3C when considering all-situations. 

Part of the reason for this is that McLeod is used as the #1 penalty killer – a role he genuinely has earned and in which he excels. But the other part of the deployment is due to the staff’s hyper reliance on him in the defensive zone.

According to Evolving-Hockey, the percent of shifts starting in the defensive zone is higher for McLeod than any other skater in the NHL. It’s not just a ratio thing – his 100 minutes of defensive zone shifts (via PuckIQ) is higher than any forward in the NHL, beating #2 Sean Kuraly by over 10 minutes.

It’s great for Mikey’s career that he’s been able to carve out such a clear niche after struggling to find his identity early on. There’s just one problem. He’s not nearly as good at this as his staff seems to think.

He’s not bad, mind you. In fact, he’s fine at these types of shifts. On PuckIQ, there are 72 forwards with 50+ minutes of DZ shifts this year. McLeod is 20th in shot share (19th if you weight for danger) and 23rd in goal share. So why am I raising such a stink about it if McLeod is actually above average at that skill?