The Devils defense is fine, but their defensemen need to be better

While the Devils have a deep defense core, it does not appear to be Stanley Cup caliber – especially offensively.

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By CJ Turtoro (@CJTDevil)

The New Jersey Devils under Sheldon Keefe were a brand-new team, defensively. A team that was 23rd in xGA/60 during 2023-24 shot up to 12th in 2024-25 and, miraculously, a team that was 28th in GA/60 shot all the way up to 7th.

The Devils went from being an infamous sieve to a top 10 defensive squad. And that’s perhaps unsurprising given how historically dominant the Devils were at preventing the other team from generating shots on goal. 

This led many to believe that the Devils blueline was now “fixed” and that their starting six were relatively unimpeachable.

They did their job – preventing goals – as well as almost any blueline in the NHL. What eventually caught up to the Devils was simply their lack of a bottom-6 scoring threat and, more generally, a lack of skilled forward depth.

That entire paragraph is wrong. 

To believe that, you have to have a pretty narrow view of what the “role” of each of the five players on the ice is.

When you broaden the scope to include all aspects of a player’s performance – not just the one they’re conventionally considered responsible for – you get a very different view of the blueline.

Forwards defended, but defensemen didn’t score

I think fans often conflate defensIVE performance with defenseMAN performance, and certainly have this year. They are not the same. There are five skaters on the ice, all have both offensive and defensive responsibilities.

What if that famously maligned bottom-6 of the forward group included some of the most effective defensive forwards in the game? And what if part of the reason they didn’t produce offense was that the blueline was contributing diddly squat in terms of creating scoring chances? As it turns out, these things are both factually true.

The Devils bottom-6 forwards were composed exclusively of above-replacement defensive forwards, many new faces, almost all of whom were above average, and a few of whom were among the most effective forwards in the NHL at suppressing scoring chances.

Side note, I’d actually argue that the threesome above would make a perfectly acceptable 4th line next season. Basitan-Dowling-Tatar was the 4th best line IN THE NHL at xG prevention (50+ minutes). So I think with an off-season and camp to gel, something like this could work well as long as improvements are made to get 3L more scoring.

In total, after adding in Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, & Co., the Devils forwards contributed the 3rd most defensive value of any forward unit in the NHL (according to Evolving-Hockey’s GAR). The forwards deserve at least some credit for the defensive excellence of the roster. 

So now what about the reverse? Do the defensemen deserve a little bit of blame for the offensive struggles? Let’s start with the simplest question, which is “did they score goals?”

They were in a 3-way tie for 18th to 21st most points scored by defensemen. But they’re defensemen, so they’re not supposed to be scoring goals. They might not even be taking shots, and certainly not dangerous ones, right? Wrong. Devils defensemen had the 10th most xGs of any team, but simply did not convert on them. 

And if you’re thinking that this could easily be due to one player with a very low conversion rate, you’re right – that is possible. Unfortunately, that’s not what happened at all. Of the Devils’ six regular defensemen, all six of them were minus shooters. 

These six men cost the Devils more than 11 goals through their shooting ineptitude. If they just converted at a league-average rate, the Devils’ offense would’ve gone from 20th in the NHL to 13th. 

And that is JUST from their shooting. When we look at the picture holistically, we get a much more profound conclusion about the shortcomings of the unit.

NJ’s blueline is not currently Cup-caliber