The case for, and against, pursuing John Gibson

There are rumblings the rebuilding Anaheim Ducks could move on from their veteran goaltender.

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It’s no secret the New Jersey Devils need to bring an established NHL goaltender into the organization this off-season. Ideally, one with the ability to be used as the starter.

For one reason or another, Mackenzie Blackwood has struggled for the better part of two years while Jonathan Bernier’s health is a question mark. The position needs to be addressed.

As such, the Devils are likely to be linked to any and all competent goaltenders potentially available in the coming weeks.

The hot name in the rumor mill right now is John Gibson. While Gibson’s agent shut down the rumors Gibson wants out of Anaheim, that doesn’t mean he isn’t or won’t be available.

Anaheim is the in the midst of a lengthy rebuild and it stands to reason they might move on from their highly paid, soon to be 29-year-old for assets that will better serve them in the future.

Not to mention, Gibson’s trade protection only blocks 10 teams from acquiring him without permission.

This is a long way of saying new GM Pat Verbeek will have little problem trading Gibson if he desires to do so.

If that’s the case, should the Devils have interest? Let’s play both sides.

The case for Gibson

His name has been dragged through the mud due to the numbers not matching his reputation over the last three years. There is definitely some truth to that; save percentages of .904, .903, and .904 don’t quite cut it for an ‘elite’ netminder.

But it’s important to put things into context here. Gibson’s workload has been extremely difficult. In fact, you can make a very strong case no goaltender has played under more trying circumstances; especially over the last two years.

Of the 38 most used goaltenders at 5v5 (2500 minutes+), here is where Gibson ranks in several key categories:

xGA against/60 —> 2.69 (38th)
HD shots/60 —> 8.95 (38th)
Average shot distance —> 32.96 feet (38th)

Call me crazy but I think it is harder to stop pucks at an elite rate when you are constantly facing shots of the highest quality.

Nobody faced more high-danger shots per game; nobody faced shots from closer distances; and nobody faced a more difficult workload in terms of weighted shots.

That’s not to say Gibson shouldn’t have fared better. Even under such difficult circumstances, I’d like to see more.

But it’s not as if he has been garbage. At 5v5, he allowed goals (2.77/60) at essentially the same rate as expected (2.69).

And it’s probably harder to outperform expectation when you’re under such constant duress. The numbers suggest that could be the case.

Using the same criteria as above, 17 of 38 goaltenders have faced at least eight high-danger shots per 60 over the last two years. That’s ~45%.

Of that group, only four rank in the top-15 in 5v5 save percentage. That’s 26%.

As you’d expect, it is harder to post high-end save percentages when you’re facing more top quality shots than peers.

While Gibson is not at the top of the charts in high-danger save percentage either, his .824 HDSV% over the last couple years is respectable and in the same range as other high profile goaltenders we’ve seen change teams in that time (.834 for Jacob Markstrom; .833 for Frederik Andersen).