Ryan Graves has been as advertised; no better, no worse

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Today’s post was written by C.J. TURTORO. You can find C.J. on Twitter @CJTDevil.

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One of the New Jersey Devils’ biggest off-season additions, Ryan Graves, has brought sandpaper and muscle to an otherwise finesse-oriented blueline. And, importantly, he’s been a relatively natural fit alongside Dougie Hamilton on the top pairing.

In fact – due to Dougie’s injury – no Devils skater has spent more time on the ice than Graves. That’s a rather substantial change in the complexion of the Devils’ blueline, and a similarly substantial change in scenery for Graves who was stuck behind a trio of Norris-caliber defensemen in Colorado. 

When acquiring Graves, we thought he’d bring physicality and size to what had previously been a small, but skilled Devils blueline. We also thought he’d make the Devils better at a faster pace than Mikahil Maltsev -- whom we traded for Graves along with a draft pick -- given that Maltsev had been buried in the bottom-6 and Graves was already an established NHL defenseman playing 19 minutes a game on a successful team.

And we thought he’d help stabilize a historically bad Devils penalty kill -- a unit that had been a strength of the franchise for over a decade.

Then, after signing star blueliner Dougie Hamilton, he was widely expected to play on the top pairing alongside him given Dougie’s history of defensively capable partners.

On all these points, Graves has delivered. He leads the Devils in hits, has anchored a resurgent penalty kill, and played almost the whole year on the top pairing. Put simply, he has been more integral than Maltsev, and, in fact, remained tall.

Here’s another thing you may not know about what he’s done well -- he’s been surprisingly responsible with regards to penalties. Graves is tied for 10th in the NHL among defensemen with a +2 penalty differential. That is extremely rare for a player of his physicality. None of the 134 defensemen who have played 200 minutes have better penalty rates and lower hit rates. Everyone who is more physical is less responsible.

His position on that top pairing, combined with his excellent penalty impact, is part of why he’s been the Devils’ 3rd most valuable player according to GAR, and their most valuable defender.

All of this is great news! 

Here’s the bad part: he’s not nearly as good as some people seem to think. For instance this was a tweet I saw circulating that expressed a sentiment I’ve been seeing a lot from fans and even some of the ESPN+ pundits.

As much as I love watching Graves play, I have to disabuse people of the notion that he’s anywhere on the same planet of influence as Hamilton. If there were a cocktail party of elite defenders, Dougie would be atop the guest list, and Graves would be fortunate to be serving the hors d'oeuvres. 

For evidence of this, you need look no further than the shifts in which they play apart. Despite playing a comparable percent of his shifts in the defensive zone, Graves has been outshot, outchanced, and outscored when he’s on the ice without Dougie.

As you may have guessed, Dougie has no such problem. His expected goal share actually improves. Now, unlike Graves, Dougie’s usage does change when off that pairing -- he plays more in the offensive zone -- but given the mountain of evidence that Dougie is good independent of his partner, I think we can safely say that seems to be continuing.

Graves has been about an NHL-average defender -- something that the Devils have had a hard time finding. Using RAPMs from Evolving-Hockey, he has +0.04 expected goal per hour impact. His shot impact is higher because of one simple reason -- he shoots a ton. But it’s not immediately clear why, because he’s not particularly good at it.

Among defensemen, Graves was the 12th worst shooter in the NHL in terms of value-added. This year, Graves is one off the team-leader (Dougie) in 5v5 shot attempts. He has attempted 48 shots. Of those, less than half (21) have hit the net, and only one (1) has ended up in the back of the net. You might think that his shooting isn’t about scoring it’s about creating chaos and follow-up opportunities. That would be great! But, according to Moneypuck, the Devils have one (1) shot attempt off a rebound of a 5v5 Graves shot.

Lastly, the Devils much-improved penalty kill seems to be better regardless if Graves is on it or not. In the 40 minutes Graves has played on the PK, the Devils have allowed seven goals and scored one. In the 30 minutes without him, they’ve allowed two and scored one.

When Graves is on, the Devils are allowing shot attempts at double the rate, and shots on goal at triple the rate. There’s a very good argument to be made that Graves has been the Devils’ least effective penalty-killer so far.

None of this is meant to say that Graves is bad. He’s not. He’s been an essential addition to the team. And, not to backpedal, but I think some of these worse-looking stats are misleading.

His PK job has been harder than his teammates since he gets the first shift. He probably does create some chaos with his shots and it might be part of why his on-ice shooting percentage is so high.

And, to my eye, he does seem to disrupt the flow of the game in the DZ, and clear the crease in a way we all felt was sorely lacking previously. 

Graves has been a great find and a valuable addition. In my opinion, he’s been a true top-4 defenceman on this team, behind Dougie, Severson, and a radically underappreciated Jonas Siegenthaler (who has actually been as the player people think Graves has been).

There’s nothing wrong with appreciating Graves for what he is non-hyperbolically. But, if we are going to think of him as a 1B to Dougie’s 1A, I think we’re setting him up to disappoint us.