Ranking the top-10 centers in the Metro Division

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We’ve officially hit the dog days of the sum…off-season. The vast majority of roster movement is over with and we’re still a while away from puck drop. There isn’t an official start date set for 2021, after all.

With that in mind, I thought it’d be fun to rank who I believe to be the best players at each position in the Metro Division.

The centers are up first.

1. Sidney Crosby

Sid isn’t a kid anymore but he’s still a damn good hockey player. Outside of maybe some lost explosiveness, the 33-year-old is the same player he was a handful of years ago. His in-zone passing is as good as there is in the league. He’s extremely strong on the puck and a weapon down-low. His backhander is unmatched. His hand-eye coordination is unmatched. He’s still a tireless worker. It’s all there. That is why he amassed 147 points in 120 games over the last two seasons despite seemingly every player around him suffering lengthy injuries during that period.

2. Sean Couturier

There was a time Couturier was a defensive specialist who was only good for 10-15 goals and ~40 points per year. There’s nothing wrong with that, of course, but you’re generally expecting better bang for your buck on an 8th overall pick.

Couturier flipped the switch in his 25-year-old season – he piled up 31 goals and 76 points – and hasn’t looked back. He has averaged 30 goals and 75 points per 82 games over the last three seasons while facing the opposition’s best players each and every night. He neuters opposing offences, produces a ton of his own, and drives play. He is as complete of a player as you’ll see at 5v5.

If he were able to contribute a little more on the power play, he’d be in the conversation for top spot.

3. Evgeni Malkin

I think Malkin is one of the most underrated superstars in the league. There’s somewhat of a perception that he has slowed down, or been surpassed by a lot of guys, but the numbers don’t show that. Quite the contrary. The 34-year-old is turning back to clock with his level of play.

As everyone knows, the Penguins were crippled with injuries this past season. Pretty much every noteworthy player on the roster spent at least a few weeks sidelined.

That didn’t slow Malkin down one bit. He put up 74 points in 55 games, which equates to 110 points over a full season. 110! Malkin hasn’t hit 100 in almost a decade, and only surpassed 110 once in his career.

He was full value for it too. Malkin averaged 3.43 points per 60 at 5v5, the 2nd highest total of his career. The Penguins out-scored their opponents by 14 with Geno on the ice in that game state, and they controlled *checks notes* nearly 10% more of the Expected Goals than they did when he was on the bench.

For more than a decade people have said something to the tune of ‘when Malkin is on, he’s as good as any player in the league!’ and, well, it somehow still applies. He’s aging like a fine wine and, quite honestly, could easily be ranked higher on this list.

4. Sebastian Aho

Aho is one of my favorite players in the league. He is good at assisting on the breakout. He’s a zone-entry machine. His passing is excellent and he knows how to consistently find teammates to create quality shots. Oh, and he is developing into one of the game’s better finishers. He netted 24 as a 19-year-old rookie and his output has gone up in each of his years in the league. He hit another level this season, producing at a ~46 goal pace for a team that generally struggles to score as often as they should based on their ability to generate chances.

I think there is definite room for growth defensively but he is already one of the best offensive players in the league and I still think he can hit another level.

And for the crowd that puts value on ‘big game’ players who get it done in the playoffs: Aho has 24 points in 23 games over the last two years.

The kid is a gamer.

5. Mathew Barzal

As many of you know, I’ve been a Barzal truther since the beginning of time. I wanted the Devils to take him 7th overall a few years ago and thought he was way underdrafted. Clearly, that turned out to be the case.

Barzal is special. He is the engine that drives everything for the New York Islanders. He uses his explosive skating, and uncanny ability to change directions, to exit the defensive zone and enter the offensive zone with ease (again and again and again and again).

He is almost impossible to contain because of his agility and ability to whip passes through even the smallest of holes in opposing defenses. He is always moving, and he’ll take advantage the second anything opens up.

His production hasn’t been quite the same since his rookie campaign – perhaps not so coincidentally, the time Barry Trotz and his defense-first approach showed up – but I have absolutely no doubts about Barzal and his ability.

Even under Trotz, I think he can and will provide more.

6. Mika Zibanejad

Zibanejad is not necessarily my cup of tea in a player. He’s not a dynamic skater who can consistently pile up zone entries and pick teams apart off the rush. He is not a play driver. He is not great defensively. And he doesn’t draw many penalties.

That said, I think it is only fair I give him proper credit for what he can do because it’s perhaps the most important aspect of hockey and he does it damn well: score goals. Zibanejad netted 30, and hit 74 points, in a breakout 2018-19 campaign. He hit another level – perhaps due to Artemi Panarin drawing so much attention – in 2019-20, recording 41 goals and 75 points in 57 games. Zibanejad has his faults but, even aided by unsustainably high percentages, it is pretty hard to ignore somebody producing at a 59 goal(!)/108 point pace.

When you put up numbers even close to that level, there is a lot more room for error in other elements of the game.

I do expect Zibanejad’s numbers to dip next season, however, he has clearly established himself as one of the better point producers in the league over the last couple of years. He deserves credit for that.

7. Nico Hischier

I love everything about Nico’s game. He is a walking zone-entry. His passing ability is high-end. He draws a ton of penalties. Despite a somewhat slight frame, he does not hesitate to go to the net and he piles up the chances as a result. Some may be surprised to hear he ranks 33rd in high-danger shots per 60 since entering the league. He legitimately generates Grade A looks like a top-end 1st liner. He also produces 5v5 points like a 1st line, averaging 2.04 per 60 over his three seasons in the NHL.

Nico is a tireless worker, he backchecks like his life depends on it, and he plays with some fire. What’s really missing with Nico is power play production. The efficiency at 5v5 is there, and he has the smarts/work ethic to continue improving defensively.

If a different coaching staff, and some personnel changes, can help get him going on the man advantage, he can take his game to another level and put himself in position to move up the rankings. I believe he can but I’d be ignorant to rank him higher before that happens. He’s gotta go out and do it.

8. Pierre-Luc Dubois

I’m sure I’ll raise some eyes for ranking PLD this low after what he showed in the playoffs but I’m looking at the overall body of work here. And the overall body of work had Dubois put up the same kind of numbers as Nico (~4 more points had Nico played 70 games at his current pace) while playing for a better team. Nico is the better player in transition, and he draws more penalties/takes fewer.

I love the skill and power package Dubois brings to the table. He is already a very good player and the ceiling is sky high. But, much like Nico, he has to go out there and produce more over a full season to move up the list.

There are too many great players in the Metro to be ranked high based on tools, ceiling, and draft pedigree. High-end results have to be there.

9. Nicklas Backstrom

Age is starting to catch up with Backstrom. His xG generation numbers have dropped three consecutive years and he just produced 5v5 points at the same clip as Chris Tierney. Not great!

That being said, Backstrom is still one of the best in-zone passers in the NHL. Once the Capitals are set up in the OZ, he can pick teams apart. I think that is why he is still very good on the power play but is starting to depreciate at full-strength. He’s just not as effective unless he has time to slow things down and dissect defenses, and that is difficult to do consistently at 5v5.

Good player but his best days are definitely well behind him.

10. Brock Nelson

Nelson is the prototypical Lou Lamoriello player. There’s nothing flashy about him. He just goes about his business and gets the job done.

Nelson is a good forechecker who can use his big frame to knock people off the puck and win more than his share of battles. He doesn’t generate a ton of volume but most of his chances come around the net. He converts them at an above average rate, which is why he generally puts up 20-25 goals – sometimes more (he scored 26 in 68 this season) – without piling up looks.

He is also a quality defender. He consistently helps out down low and does a good job of taking away the middle of the ice.

Again, he is not the most exciting player to watch but there’s a reason Evolving-Hockey had him worth more Goals Above Replacement than names like Jonathan Toews, Anze Kopitar, Claude Giroux and Filip Forsberg in 2019-20.

Honorable mentions: Max Domi and Evgeny Kuznetsov. I think Domi is one of the better playmakers in the league but he is a liability defensively and had somewhat of a down year. If he bounces back, I think he could be ranked next summer.

As for Kuznetsov, he is good through the neutral zone and everyone knows about his high-end puck skills. His defensive play is absolutely horrendous, however, and erases much of his value.

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numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com

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