Predicting the East Division standings

How do the New Jersey Devils stack up in an ultra competitive division? Find out!

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I’m a big predictions guys. I love making them, and I love looking back when all is said and done to see where I was right and where I went wrong.

Today’s post will provide a good opportunity to do that, as I’m going to share my thoughts on how I see the East Division standings shaping up in 2021.

Let’s dive right into it.

1. Boston Bruins

I know, I know. There are questions about the left side of the defense and understandably so. I just think the Bruins have enough going for them to pile up victories anyway.

David Pastrnak seems poised to return ahead of schedule, which means they’ll get a lot of run from what I consider the best top line in the NHL. Their top PP is lethal. Craig Smith and a healthy Ondrej Kase should provide some much-needed pop in the middle-6.

Charlie McAvoy is a sleeper of mine to contend for the Norris Trophy, Matt Grzelcyk is ready for a bigger role, and the Bruins have one of the best goaltending tandems in the NHL.

The loss of Torey Krug will definitely sting but this is a team that won the President’s Trophy last season, and ranks 2nd in points over the last three years, so I’m not expecting them to fall apart because of one notable loss (I don’t think Zdeno Chara brings much to the table at this point).

2. Pittsburgh Penguins

This…this is a very strange team. I don’t like their forward depth, and the very real possibility of a Mike Matheston - Cody Ceci pairing is nightmare fuel. Even so, I think the Penguins are going to contend for the division title; provided they stay healthy.

Very few teams can match their top-6 of Sidney Crosby, Jake Guenztel, Evgeni Malkin, Jason Zucker, Bryan Rust and Kasperi Kapanen. That’s two top-tier centers with a lot of talent on the wing.

I also love the top half of their defense, headlined by Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin, and John Marino, who very much looks the part of a premium defensive defender.

The Pens were quietly one of the better 5v5 teams in the league last season (they finished 7th in xGF% despite a shocking amount of injuries). I expect more of the same this year. If they can get a little more consistency from their power play, they should be very good.

3. Philadelphia Flyers

I don’t think the Flyers are a sexy team, but they may be a little underrated heading into the 2021 campaign. They are a stout defensively and Carter Hart very much looks for real. He finished 3rd in save percentage above expectation last season, per MoneyPuck. That, right there, is a good basis for success.

Then there’s the fact they quietly finished 7th in the NHL in 5v5 goals lasts season. 7th! Their offense is probably better than it is cracked up to be, and a healthy Oskar Lindblom should give them another dimension offensively. Nolan Patrick could provide a boost as well, giving the Flyers a very deep and potent top-9 (via DailyFaceoff).

Are there many guys that are going to find the scoresheet every night? No. But there is real balance throughout. If one line is not going, there’s enough talent for another line or two to pick up the slack.

This team is solid.

4. Washington Capitals

I don’t think it was a homerun by any means, but I get the appeal behind hiring Peter Laviolette in that he’s usually a guy who can come in and give a real jolt to a veteran team for a couple of years. What I don’t like about the Laviolette hire – besides thinking there were better options available (hello, Bruce Boudreau) – is that he is talking a lot about playing faster and pushing the pace. That’s all well in good for most teams. I don’t think Washington is one of them.

Simply put, they’re not built to play that way. Think about it. They have guys like T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, Zdeno Chara, Justin Schultz and even John Carlson (he’s not a fast skater and can struggle defending vs speed) on the roster. I don’t think they’re at their best playing with tempo and attacking in transition. Those guys are built to play slow, tactical, games focused on making things happen in the half-court, so to speak.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there is an adjustment period; one that doesn’t necessarily go all that well. In the end, I’ll bet on their high-end talent/top power play and Ilya Samsonov giving the Caps enough to make the dance. But I don’t think it’s going to be a cakewalk.

5. New York Islanders

Barry Trotz is one of the best at getting a lot out of a little bit. I’m sure he’ll do a good job with that once again. I just don’t think the Isles have enough juice to make the playoffs in what looks to be an ultra competitive division.

Even assuming Mathew Barzal is signed and in the lineup from Day 1, I don’t know that the Isles have enough offensive punch. Their top-6 is good, not great, and there is very little firepower in the bottom-6. I also think their defense is going to take a hit – at both ends of the ice – without Devon Toews, one of the more underrated players in the league.

The Isles will play with good structure. Ilya Sorokin raises the ceiling between the pipes, too. I just don’t see enough offense throughout the lineup.

6. Buffalo Sabres

I don’t think the Sabres will be a playoff team, however, they appear ready to play competitive hockey. No, seriously. I kind of like this roster.

Taylor Hall, Jack Eichel and Victor Olofsson will make up an extremely dangerous top line. Eric Staal gives the team a reliable 2C, too, and he should help form a quality 2nd unit alongside Jeff Skinner and Sam Reinhart. There are way too many questions in the bottom-6 for my liking, although Dylan Cozens forcing his way onto the team could provide a much-needed boost.

I think Rasmus Dahlin is ready for a monster year on defense. If Colin Miller or Brandon Montour can rebound, and/or Henri Jokiharju can take the next step, the D-core should be OK.

I have time for Linus Ullmark between the pipes, although I’m not exactly confident in Carter Hutton as the backup.

In the end I don’t think there is enough here to make the dance in such a strong division. But the Sabres should be decent.

7. New York Rangers

I think we need to pump the brakes on the Rangers a little bit. Yes, Alexis Lafreniere joining an already strong top-7/8 is exciting. Yes, Igor Shesterkin seems poised to be an excellent starter from the get-go.

But their filler up front is not good, and the defense is downright bad. This is a team that was caved in at 5v5 a season ago (they ranked 26th in xGF%, 28th in CF%) in large part because the team’s blueline.

And the big change they made this summer was trading Marc Staal and signing Jack Johnson, who is somehow worse.

If K’Andre Miller is ready to play that’ll help. But I’m not sure I’d bet on him moving the needle enough – at least right away – to make the defense even close to average in their own zone.

This is another retooling year, in my opinion.

8. New Jersey Devils

I do expect the Devils to be more competitive than last season. Andreas Johnsson will give them a lift up front, as will the continued development of Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and *gulp* Jesper Bratt.

While lacking high-end talent, the team’s best six on defense (Ryan Murray, Damon Severson, Sami Vatanen, Will Butcher, P.K. Subban, and Ty Smith) could make up the most potent unit they’ve had in years.

Mackenzie Blackwood, who finished 4th in SV% above expectation, will give them stable goaltending on most nights.

Now for the bad. Bratt remains unsigned. He is going to miss *some* time, and may take a while to get up to speed whenever something finally gets done. There are a lot of unknowns in the bottom-6 as well. Sure, guys like Jesper Boqvist and Yegor Sharangovich have shown varying levels of promise. But can they be consistently productive at the NHL level? If not, scoring depth is once again going to be an issue.

Again, there is depth but not necessarily top-end talent on defense. That *could* be an issue considering all of the elite forwards/top-6 groups in this division.

And then there is the Corey Crawford situation. We don’t know what is happening and I’m not going to speculate. But if Crawford, for one reason or another, is unable to play, then the Devils are going to have major backup issues (again!) in a condensed season that will be loaded with back-to-backs and 3-in-4s. Not good!

Could the Devils finish higher? Absolutely. But it’s possible, if not likely, they still don’t have enough talent, and find themselves selling off some expiring contracts at the deadline.

Luckily, GM Tom Fitzgerald has proven quite adept at making the most of such situations.

numbers via NaturalStatTrick and Moneypuck

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