Predators 4, Devils 3: Safe is death

New Jersey played things conservatively down the stretch – and paid the price for it.

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A few notes on New Jersey’s disappointing overtime loss to the Nashville Predators:

Safe is death

One of the reasons the Devils have been so good this season is their relentless attacking mentality.

It doesn’t matter if the top line or the 4th line is on the ice. It doesn’t matter if Dougie Hamilton or Brendan Smith is patrolling the blueline. It doesn’t matter if the Devils are up or down. They push, and push, and push. And that’s no exaggeration.

Teams ahead on the scoreboard generally play conservative and almost welcome pressure onto themselves. The Devils don’t.

When leading this season, the Devils have controlled 59% of the expected goals and 61% of the high-danger chances. Absurd dominance.

Given the relentless way the Devils play – they give opponents no room to breath – and the success that has come from that, there is no reason to alter the approach. It’s not as if they have been overzealous and throwing games away.

I do get the theory behind using two defensemen on the power play, especially when multiple goals ahead. But I don’t like it when the team could still use more offense.

The power play is so, so, much more threatening with four forwards on the ice. The Devils generate more than 12xG per 60 with Mercer on the ice as the 4th forward and give up only 0.95 xGA per 60 in such situations. With John Marino out there, and the conservative approach, the Devils create 4.44 xG per 60 and allow 0.78. That’s more than a 7% cut in xG share for very marginal defensive upgrades.

Not to mention, the 4F approach hasn’t exactly come back to bite the Devils this season. They have conceded one shorthanded goal through 24 games and only the Colorado Avalanche have given up fewer high-danger chances than New Jersey (3). The Devils give their opponent nothing *with* four forwards on the ice and a gung-ho mentality.

Up only one, I don’t think I’d be sacrificing probability of scoring a 4th goal that would’ve ended the game.

Lindy Ruff elected to take Mercer off the power play, go with the double D approach, and the team kind of shot itself in the foot as a result.

It’s no big deal in the grand scheme of things – the Devils aren’t exactly starved for one point – but hopefully a lesson learned for the future. Don’t pass up easy opportunities for offense when only up a goal.