Players to avoid: Sean Monahan
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Every year I like to write about my preferred off-season targets for the New Jersey Devils, be it via free agency or trade.
I will absolutely be doing those articles again this time around. But I don’t want to focus only on players I think the Devils should pursue since they’ll only get, say, two of 10 even if things work out.
With that in mind, I thought it’d be worthwhile to talk about players I think they should avoid entirely. Cover all the bases, you know?
Up first is Calgary Flames center Sean Monahan. He’s been one of the better goal-scoring pivots since he entered the league.
He’s just 26 years old so you’d think he has plenty of good hockey left in the tank, making him a fit for all teams; including those just starting to make the climb.
Monahan was made available in recent years – there was a lot of Monahan for Matt Dumba talk last off-season – and, with the Flames failing to meet expectations, you can bet his name will pop up in rumors once again.
Obviously, the Devils don’t need a top-6 center. But they do need more goal scoring ability and, again, Monahan is young enough that you *could* justify trading for. He has a couple years left on his deal still, too, so that’s not a concern.
Unfortunately, there are many others; which is why I think the Devils should steer well clear of No. 23.
For starters, his marquee trait is goal scoring. Sorry, was his marquee trait. Monahan has scored 34 goals over his last 130 games (playoffs included). That’s a 21-goal pace over 82 games. Not nothing, of course, but not great for a $6+ million player whose bread and butter is putting the puck in the net.
It’s not just a rough string of puck luck either. His shot and chance generation numbers are trending downwards rather significantly.
As you can see, he generated shots and shot attempts at the lowest clip of his NHL career in 2020-21. Only as a rookie did he generate chances at a lesser rate.
Unsurprisingly, the dip in shot and chance generation led to the lowest goal output of his career; .22 shy of meeting the previous low.
For perspective of how inefficient Monahan was as a scorer this season, Derek Grant, Jujhar Khaira, and Michael Raffl matched him in terms of 5v5 goals/60. That’s…not good.
The year prior, while better, was also disappointing. Monahan’s 5v5 goal scoring efficiency tied him for 187th in the league; on par with Adam Gaudette and Sam Lafferty. Again, not great.
Monahan has a lot of mileage on him and has had a bunch of hand injuries and surgeries. So, while 26, it’s possible he’ll never be the scorer he was but a couple years ago.
That’s a big-time problem because he brings absolutely nothing to the table outside of finishing.
He’s not an ace penalty drawer (or anything close). He doesn’t drive play. And he’s not a good defender.
Evolving-Hockey has Monahan’s even-strength defensive game worth -2.6 GAR over the last two years. That’s not Patrick Kane bad but it’s pretty hard to stomach absolutely no value defensively, or in transition, from a $6 million player when the offense isn’t there to help offset it. And it hasn’t been for two years now.
‘Maybe just switch him to wing and let him focus on offense like Pavel Zacha!’
A couple things with that:
Unlike Zacha, Monahan can’t skate. At all. He accelerates very slowly and there’s no top speed or power. He can’t really carry the puck at all, either. I think he is the worst possible fit for a Lindy Ruff system, especially if he were playing with someone like Jack Hughes. Keeping up would be an issue and, again, he’d add nothing in transition.
I mean, look at that. Very few controlled exits and even fewer entries. And that doesn’t even include the 2020-21 campaign, which I imagine would only make him look worse.
Zacha has averaged .53 goals/60 and 1.49 points/60 over the last two years at 5v5. Monahan is at .59 goals/60 and 1.51 points/60. Why would you trade valuable assets, and eat a ton of money, for a player who is essentially Zacha at 5v5 when *the* knock on Zacha is he doesn’t do enough at 5v5? Even if you are a Zacha backer and like him at two and change, would you like him at six and change? I’m guessing not.
Long story short, you’re getting a one trick pony who is not necessarily much good at said trick anymore.
Even at a potential discount, I don’t think Monahan is somebody the Devils should be spending assets on.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com, Evolving-Hockey.com and PuckPedia.com
Great write up as always Todd. Also, how nice is it to watch playoff hockey with some fans in the stands?
ouch.