Pavel Zacha has predictably regressed in 2021-22

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What should the Devils do with Pavel Zacha? The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman recently posed the question in an article about the divisive forward.

The blog is definitely worth a read in its entirety but, in short, Shayna concludes – based on comparable players – Zacha is more likely to underperform on his next contract than provide surplus value.

Excerpt below:

One way to look at his trajectory moving forward is with Luszczyszyn’s similarity score generator. That helps compare skaters not by playing styles, but by factors including production, age, height and weight.

Built on Zacha’s play going into this season, his best comparables are Jamie McGinn, Blake Comeau, Anthony Stewart, Derick Brassard and Mikkel Boedker.   

Based on those comparables, there’s a higher percentage chance of him becoming a ‘bust’ throughout the life of his next contract, especially as the years go on, versus him providing positive value.

Put another way, the Devils would probably be smart to cut the cord.

There’s only one problem: doing so now isn’t anywhere close to appealing as it would have been, say, last summer. And, you know what? This was very predictable.