Ondrej Palát and microstats: Can he rebound?

Alex Chauvancy digs into Palat's debut season with the New Jersey Devils and if we can expect more moving forward.

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By Alex Chauvancy (@AlexC_THW)

Year one of the Ondrej Palát contract did not go as planned but it's tough to blame him.

Just a few games into the season he suffered a groin injury that required surgery and caused him to miss two-plus months. 

Palát returned in January and had his moments in the regular season, but it was mostly a struggle for him. He did, however, have vintage Palát moments in the playoffs, specifically in the Devils' Game 7 romp of the New York Rangers that helped them win a playoff series for the first time since 2012. 

While Palát's contract was never going to be great from the moment he signed it, the Devils need a bit more from him in 2023-24.

Is he capable of a bounce-back year? Let's dig into his microstats and try to see what comes next. 

Optimism or concern for Palát?

The Devils brought in Palát because, at this time last year, they were a young team without many veterans and playoff experience.

Having played in four Stanley Cups, and won two, there aren't many better players than Palát to bring into a locker room.

Playoff experience wasn't the only reason general manager Tom Fitzgerald signed Palát. At a minimum, they wanted top-nine scoring but, realistically, more so in the top-six for 2022-23. 

He won't have to play that high up the lineup anymore with Tyler Toffoli and Timo Meier in the fray. Instead, the Devils will count on him to provide depth scoring in a third-line role. Can he bounce back?

Though Palát has never been a high-volume shooter, his shooting metrics weren't great this past season. Via Corey Sznajder's tracked data (by way of JFresh), Palát was among the lower-volume shooters in the NHL:

• 28th percentile in shots

• 49th percentile in shots off high-danger passes

• 23rd percentile in in-zone shots

• 39th percentile in rush shots

Although that might raise a red flag, most of those rates are not that far off from where he was in 2021-22. For example, he was in the 48th percentile in rush shots and 45th in shots off high-danger passes. Even when it comes to in-zone shooting, he was in the 29th percentile, so his shooting rates are not overly concerning.  

Palát made his money through his playmaking with the Tampa Bay Lightning. His passing microstats for 2021-22 were quite good, and the hope was that they'd look something like this with the Devils this past season:

Despite missing plenty of time due to injury, Palat's playmaking was nearly in line with his 2021-22 season with the Lightning. He was in the 69th percentile in primary assists, 61st in chance assists and 76th in primary shot assists.