On Wright, Slafkovsky, and the intrigue surrounding 1st overall

Shane Wright has been the consensus No. 1 in this class for the better part of three years. But will he be chosen 1st when all is said and done?

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The 2022 NHL Entry Draft is just over a week away and yet there’s still plenty of intrigue surrounding what the Montreal Canadiens will do with the 1st overall pick.

Shane Wright has been widely regarded as the top player of this draft class for several years – but he’s lost plenty of steam down the stretch.

While Wright may very well end up being selected atop the draft, it is far from the certainty it once appeared.

HockeyProspect is a very reputable scouting service (I highly recommend their draft guide) with a pulse on the inner workings of NHL teams. It was noteworthy when they put Juraj Slafkovsky atop their rankings.

Just a few days later Bob McKenzie, who has been the best in the business since the beginning of time, also had Slafkovsky atop his rankings; which are created from the polling of NHL scouts.

The player atop McKenzie’s final list has gone 1st overall year after year after year so Slafkovsky holding top spot is definitely eye-opening, although it should be noted he beat Wright by “the slimmest of margins.”

Although there absolutely could be some recency bias baked into Slafkovsky’s rise as a whole, it’d be unfair to suggest that’s all this is.

HockeyProspects’ draft guide has multiple quotes from scouts going as far back as December that suggested he belongs in the conversation for top pick.

A couple excerpts from their Black Book:

“I bet a lot of teams will have Slafkovsky number one soon if they don’t already.” - December 2021

“I love him. If you’re a team picking at the top you have to look close at him versus Wright” - January 2022

It’s not just that Slafkovsky has opened eyes with his enticing combination of power, speed, and finesse. Many are disappointed with what they saw out of Wright.

The talk of the town is that Wright looked disengaged at times in the OHL. He didn’t dominate the puck, he wasn't aggressive, effort levels were inconsistent, and he seemed to be playing a watered down game.

Some of it could be boredom; Wright was a high-end player in the OHL years ago. There’s also the prospect fatigue aspect, as Wright has had all eyes on him and dissecting his game for years.

But this debate is not just noise from Hockey Men™ who are tired of Wright and salivate over big players with any semblance of skill.

A forward thinking NHL front office member I respect a great deal raised many of these concerns about Wright back in May; when Wright was still No. 1 in the latest versions of seemingly every draft ranking in existence.

For a guy who is perceived as such a high character player, he certainly hasn’t played like one this year. At times he’s been floaty, he doesn’t want to carry the puck or attack guys 1-on-1, he’s sort of taken a back seat at times and is just playing so robotic. I think Slafkovsky is a bit of the shiny new toy while having a unique package so people are really excited about him. But if they really watched him all year I’m sure they’d pick him apart as well. Wright’s a great prospect but there are some weird things with his game this year for sure. If I were picking No. 1, I’d be doing a ton of homework to figure out what happened.

At the end of the day, Wright’s overall body of work is the best in this class. He also plays a premium position.

That’s why, despite the surge from Slafkovsky, I still think Wright will be chosen 1st when all is said and done.

Another NHL front office member echoed those sentiments to me Tuesday afternoon.