On the Flames choosing Bahl over Holtz and more Sennecke talk

The Flames picking Bahl over Holtz isn't as crazy as it seems. Plus, more on why Sennecke makes so much sense for the Devils at 10.

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A few New Jersey Devils notes on – finally! – the last day of the 2023-24 NHL campaign:

Kevin Bahl or Alex Holtz?

It sounds like Calgary Flames GM Craig Conroy may have been presented with that choice and he clearly preferred the former.

Bahl has produced 14 points per 82 games throughout his career and isn’t someone you want playing against top competition or anchoring a penalty killing unit.

Even still, I can completely understand the decision. Bahl brings a much higher floor to the table than Holtz does.

He has proven to be a legitimate NHL defenseman and there’s still some room for growth.

With a quality partner who can handle most the puck play, he is serviceable enough that he could give you 18-19 minutes a night as a complimentary guy relied on to do the dirty work.

I don’t know that he’ll reach the same level but he could be a Brayden McNabb type. Those guys are wanted at the NHL level, be it by the coaching staff on hand or contending teams looking to beef up in advance of the playoffs.

Given the Flames really thinned out their defense with the trading of Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev, I can see why they opted for the more reliable player at a premium position. And this is coming from a Alex Holtz truther.

Holtz couldn’t have scored goals more efficiently this past season. He didn’t play a lot of minutes and it legitimately felt like he was constantly putting the puck in the net.

He still posted a negative goal differential (and poor on-ice metrics) despite being one of the few Devils who actually had decent goaltending behind him.

The Devils posted a .913 save percentage at 5v5 in Holtz’ minutes – for reference, Markstrom finished with a .915 in that game state – and they still couldn’t win; even with Holtz scoring at will.

What happens if that efficiency dries up a bit and he doesn’t provide more in other areas? Nothing good.

Could Holtz have been given better linemates to help mitigate some of his weaknesses? Absolutely. Could the 22-year-old still grow his game meaingfully off-puck? It’s possible!

That gives Holtz the higher ceiling – goal scoring is just so valuable – but the floor isn’t even close.

Even if Bahl stagnates, he’s someone who will be playing ~17 minutes a night in the NHL a few years down the road. Holtz could well be out of the league if his goal scoring slows and/or he doesn’t make noticeable improvements elsewhere.

Given the Flames’ needs, and the way the Devils are constructed, I think the Bahl choice may be optimal for both.

The Flames get the player most likely to provide them value – they don’t have the guys needed to get the most out of Holtz – while the Devils keep the player who, if things break right, could really hit in New Jersey given how they’re equipped to maximize his skill set

Reading the tea leaves