On Hamilton, Nemec, and the trickle down effect of signing Pesce
Pesce gives the Devils someone who can play – and win – against the toughest competition. That allows for Hamilton and Nemec to be used in cushier situations.
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It’s hard to overemphasize how much of a coup landing Brett Pesce was for the New Jersey Devils.
I’ve talked about his ability to eat very difficult minutes – and win them – ad nauseam in this space over the past couple of months. And for good reason.
It’s hard to log big minutes against elite players night after night and sniff break even, let alone come out on top. Pesce has a proven track record of doing so.
Although I’m confident John Marino will rebound in Utah, Pesce looks like a big upgrade for the Devils; certainly over the version of Marino the Devils had last season.
Marino was one of the worst defensemen in the NHL last season in terms of preventing high-danger goals, be it at evens or on the penalty kill. Pesce was closer to the top than the bottom. He’ll play a similar role and, based on his track record, is a better bet to get results doing it.
Pesce’s impact isn’t just in that he’s a guy who can face top competition and hold his own. It’s the freedom and trickle down effect that Dougie Hamilton and Simon Nemec will greatly benefit from.
I’m a big Hamilton fan. You know it, my dogs know it, the guy from the corner store knows it. Everyone knows it.
He drives play, he produces a ton of offense and, for his faults, the good greatly outweighs the bad. That’s why I ranked him the 3rd best defenseman in the Metro Division right now.
Having said that, he is not a great in-zone defender. His on-ice results are generally strong anyway because all of the things he does well but he’s not that stout in the final third. He’s just not.
Whether he wins his minutes or not, he’s more likely to spend time in his own zone facing off against elite players as opposed to just good players. And the Devils clearly want to get away from that.
Sheldon Keefe is not Lindy Ruff – maybe he’ll have other ideas – but the Devils’ staff made a pretty big effort the past couple of years to cut down on how much Hamilton faces off against elite competition.
After spending 36.6% of his minutes against the best of the best in his first season with the Devils, his percentage dipped to 29.1% in 2022-23 and 27.6% this past year (smaller sample size, of course). That’s a pretty healthy cut.
The line of thinking would be that you want Hamilton controlling the run of play and feasting offensively against mid-tier players.
Pesce’s presence will allow Keefe to deploy Hamilton that way without throwing someone overboard and giving someone minutes they can’t handle.
Pesce’s going to play a lot against the opposing’s best players – likely with Nico Hischier’s line spending plenty of time in front of him (at least at home).
One would assume Hamilton will get softer reps against mid-tier competition playing behind Jack Hughes’ line in a supercharged five-man unit.
If that’s the case, Nemec gets left 3rd and 4th lines; perhaps with Luke Hughes by his side. That’s a mouthwatering proposition.
The Devils scored 3.7 goals per 60 with Nemec on the ice against bottom-tier competition last season. If Hughes rides shotgun with Nemec on a very promising pairing, they could do a ton of damage.
The Pesce signing really does change everything for the Devils on the backend.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and PuckIQ.com