On Dawson Mercer's next contract

JP Gambatese shared his take on how the Devils could and should handle the RFA winger.

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By JP Gambatese (@JP_Gambatese)

It’s nearing the end of the 2024 off-season and the New Jersey Devils have yet to sign their most prominent RFA, Dawson Mercer.

Recent reports suggest that the two parties aren’t particularly close negotiation-wise, which will likely end up with the Newfoundland native getting a bridge deal rather than a long-term contract. 

After seemingly breaking out in 2022-23 to the tune of a 27-goal, 56-point season, the expectation was that the 22-year-old winger would continue to blossom into a perennial 30+ goal threat as a staple in the team’s top-six.

Last campaign, though, Mercer took a monumental step back, totalling just 33 points and struggling in virtually every analytical measure.

There’s an argument to be had that he was withheld from the right opportunities all season. While ex-head coach Lindy Ruff’s line-blender mentality certainly didn’t help Mercer’s production or growth, his play didn’t really warrant anything past a third-line, second-power play unit role.

Past the point drop off, Mercer’s effectiveness on the ice was nowhere close to what fans had grown accustomed to in the previous season.

His xGF% lowered from 55.54% to below 50%, and the Devils controlled just 48.16% of the scoring chances and 48.14% of the high-danger scoring chances with him on the ice in 2023-24 – as opposed to well over half the year prior. 

Looking at his microstats from both seasons, there’s a clear fall-off in play.