Nico Hischier is no Sean Couturier

Today’s guest post was written by C.J. Turturo. You can find him on Twitter @CJTDevil.

On September 10th, new Devils assistant coach Mark Recchi had this to say about Nico Hischier on FAN590 (via DevilsInsiders)

“I look at him like a Patrice Bergeron, a [Sean] Couturier. He's got a great 200-foot game already. Very responsible. He plays the right way. He plays hard. He's hard on pucks. He's going to be a terrific player”

I’ve seen this opinion thrown around ever since Nico was drafted. His favorite player was Pavel Datsyuk and in his rookie season people were already saying he was a future Selke winner. That narrative has persisted, returning when he got his big contract (one, two), remained even after the Devils bad start, continued after the bad season, and -- as Recchi showed us -- lingers to this day. 

Here’s the only problem. It’s not remotely true.

Hischier has an active stick, is a smooth puck-handler, isn't afraid of contact, is by all accounts a great leader, and is actually a bit underrated as an offensive player.

But his defensive impact is below that of an average NHLer, let alone comparable to the Selke-winners with whom he’s often mentioned.

Here are three perennial Selke-contenders whose first 3 seasons in terms of RAPM (Patrice Bergeron started his career pre-Corsi, so we don't have his -- sorry). Think of these as usage - and context - adjusted impact on each of the 5 metrics shown (via Evolving-Hockey.com).

Notice that they are all positive in both of the two defensive categories (the last two bars). Interestingly, they also were all fairly unremarkable offensively. Keep that in mind when you see what Nico Hischier’s on-ice impact has been over his first 3 seasons.

Hischier is about a standard deviation below average (about the 15th percentile) in the defensive metrics. For more context: of the 204 NHL forwards that have played at least 1000 minutes before turning 22, Couturier was 38th in defensive xGAR, O’Reilly was 52nd, and Barkov was 57th -- Nico is 148th.

Unlike those Centres, though, he’s actually a dynamic offensive player -- a little over a standard deviation above average (~85th percentile) in expected goal impact on the powerplay, and almost 2 standard deviations above average (~97th percentile) at even-strength. 

I want to clarify here what the point of this article is. I’m not saying that Hischier is worse than Couturier & Co. were in their first three seasons. I’m just saying he’s not like them at all in terms of on-ice impact. In fact, he’s the opposite of them. 

Mark Rechi singled out Couturier so let’s look at how Nico compares to him in terms of Hockeyviz’s shot impact isolates. These maps show how much shot traffic comes from a given spot in the OZ and DZ relative to what you’d expect for a league-average player with their usage.

Notice that Couturier was an immediate defensive phenom and has consistently been better than league average defensively every season (all the bottom maps are negative indicating fewer expected goals than average allowed).

It did, however, take time for him to make any offensive noise. Nico, conversely, was an immediate offensive success, but has yet to post an above average defensive season.

Look at each of their first seasons. Note how little color they share. Nico's may is a bloodbath and Couturier's is a swimming pool. With Nico, the Devils and their opponents put up good chances. With Sean, chances ground to a halt. These players are cut from different cloths. Both had great rookie seasons but in opposite ways.

And that's the point. If we look at Nico's most comparable players in the Evolving-Hockey database, we don’t get names like Couturier, Bergeron, Kopitar, and Datsyuk … we get names like Huberdeau, Gaudreau, Kane, and Draisaitl. These are some excellent players -- but they will all retire with cobwebs in the Selke shelf of their trophy case.

Nico Hischier has been advertised to us reliably as a future Selke contender. I see the raw skills that would motivate such a proclamation, but the fact is that guys that go on to join the Selke carousel all looked analytically destined for that fate their whole careers.

Nico may find that part of his game this season and make me look silly -- I hope he does -- but as of right now, Hischier’s performance to-date looks absolutely nothing like that of a future Selke winner. 

If you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid. Nico might outswim Couturier, but if we keep talking about his game like he's gonna be a climber, we're going to waste a good fish.

Belabored metaphors aside, Nico is no Sean Couturier. And the sooner we acknowledge that, the sooner we'll be able to maximize the player he is -- which really could be special.