New Jersey Devils vs New York Rangers series preview

The Devils enjoyed great success against the Rangers in the regular season, going 3-0-1 while posting sparkling underlying metrics.

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For the first time in more than a decade, the New Jersey Devils have qualified for the playoffs and find themselves in a series they actually have a chance of winning.

I’ll be previewing it ad nauseam in the coming days, looking at things in pretty much every way you can think of.

To set the table I wanted to get things started with a simplified look, examining how the two sides stack up vs one another at 5v5, on special teams, and in goal.

Let’s get right to it.

5v5 play

Make no mistake about it; the Devils are the superior team at 5v5. Whether you put more weight into season outputs, recent play, or head-to-head results, the Devils grade out much better.

During the regular season, the Devils generated 303 more shots on goal while allowing 101 fewer at 5v5. That’s a 404 shot swing, which equates to just about five better than the Rangers on a per game basis.

The gap between the two sides is even greater when looking at weighted shots, aka expected goals. The Devils posted a 56.53 xGF%; bested only by the Carolina Hurricanes.

New York lagged well behind, finishing 22nd in expected goal share. They were sandwiched between the Buffalo Sabres and Philadelphia Flyers in that regard.

While the Rangers obviously have the ability to out perform expectation with their raw shooting talent, this is not a good matchup for them in that they must do that – likely to a large extent – to prevail.

That’s something they failed to do time and time again in the regular season. The Devils beat the Rangers into the ground at 5v5 and were rewarded with seven of a possible eight points along the way.

Not that this example was possible but, in my opinion, the Rangers profile much better against a team like the Tampa Bay Lightning; a slower paced side they can play with at 5v5 and don’t need to shoot the lights out against to keep up.

If the previous meetings – or 82 games of data – are any indication, the ice is likely to be rather drastically tilted in New Jersey’s favor over the course of this series. New York’s finishing will have a lot of ground to make up.

Special teams

Whenever these teams met in the regular season, I always stressed the importance of staying disciplined.

Even when the Rangers weren’t scoring, the underlying numbers suggested the power play was a sleeping giant best avoided. Well, the giant is awake now.

Despite ranking 28th in power play time on ice over the past 10 games, only four teams scored more goals on the man advantage. The Rangers were extremely efficient.

In fact, a historically good Edmonton Oilers power play was the only one ahead of New York in goals/60 during that stretch.

With scoring threats all over the ice, and one of the league’s best in-zone passers heading the operation (Adam Fox), it is absolutely no coincidence they’re scoring at will heading into the post-season.

The good news is New Jersey possesses one of the only penalty kills that can realistically be relied upon to slow New York down.

The Devils ranked top-5 in the following categories while shorthanded:

• Attempts against/60 (4th)

• Chances against/60 (2nd)

• HD chances against/60 (5th)

• Expected goals against/60 (4th)

• Goals against/60 (4th)

They are littered with quality penalty killers up front and on defense. With so much team speed, they can aggressively pressure because they have the ability to recover quickly if pulled out of position. They’re not a team where one injury will change that.

Despite the strength of the PK, team discipline remains absolutely crucial. As captains of the Stick Infraction Squad, Miles Wood, Tomas Tatar, Dougie Hamilton simply have to avoid the unnecessary penalties.

Sure, New York may only get one good chance on any given power play. But they’re a team littered with guys who can make the most of that one chance.

We saw that firsthand over the course of the regular season. New Jersey allowed two or fewer Grade A chances in three of four meetings and the Rangers’ power play still managed to get on the board in all but one game. You simply can’t give them more than a couple of opportunities to get to work.

On the flip side, it’s not an easy matchup for New Jersey’s power play either. New York was a top-10 team at limiting high-danger chances on the PK during the regular season. Perhaps more importantly – believe it or not – just four teams spent less time shorthanded.

The Rangers generally don’t take many penalties and they’re very good at killing them when needed.

New Jersey likely won’t get a ton of power plays, nor create many chances when they do. They’ll need to be opportunistic. It’s worth noting they have shown the ability to be just that with Timo Meier in the fold.

He leads the Devils in power play markers since the trade and the Devils are a top-10 team in PP shooting percentage in that time. They can finish.

Goaltending