New Jersey Devils Q&A – 09/29/20
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You all know the drill by now. Every week you flood me with quality questions, and every week I do my best to answer them.
This might be the last one before the draft so I touched on that *a lot*.
Let’s dive right in.
Q: Does Schneider get brought out? If so your choice to come in? Greiss?
I would be pretty surprised if Schneider gets bought out; at least this off-season. He still has two more years at $6 million per. The cost of a buyout would be $2 million per for four years. The Devils don’t need any additional cap space right now. Buying Schneider out would only cause headaches down the road for no real gains in the present.
Schneider, at the very least, is the ultimate professional and a nice guy to have around as a No. 3 in case of emergency. I think GM Tom Fitzgerald understands that.
Thomas Greiss is definitely up there on my list of preferred backups. He has enjoyed plenty of success in platoons over the years, has spent a lot of time playing in the Metro area, and he’s above average at stopping high-danger shots. Sadly, that’s important when you play for the Devils.
Q: Outside of Drysdale and Sanderson are there any defense prospects that are definitely 1st rounders? Should we consider any of them at 18 and/or 20? What % likely is it we make all 3 picks?
Braden Schneider and Kaiden Guhle are almost certainly going in the 1st round. I’m sure there are teams out there that could talk themselves into taking Justin Barron, or another flier, as well.
Of that bunch, Guhle is the only guy I’d actually consider. He has the tools to become a very good, modern-day, defensive-defensemen. Whether he pans out obviously remains to be seen but there is a mix of floor and ceiling there.
Schneider and Barron are both overvalued, in my opinion, and I’d steer clear.
As for the odds of making all three picks, I’ll say 40%. I think it is a little more likely Fitzgerald finds a partner and cashes in one of those extra picks for a player who can help them now (and long-term).
Q: You're high on Rossi. What players would you rate above him. Just right at 7 or would he be a steal?
Alexis Lafreniere. Quinton Byfield. Tim Stutzle (perhaps). Those are the only players I would take over Marco Rossi. I’m that high on him. I love his skill set, I love his two-way ability, and his work ethic is second to none. I just don’t see how this kid fails. He is the total package. I think there is a solid chance he is available at 7th overall, and I don’t think there is any way he *should* be. I would definitely consider him a steal there.
Q: Variant of many other questions...We know we'll get a very good player at 7. And we're all aboard the Rossi train. But should he not be there, can you break down your rationale for the "Plan B" group; whom of Raymond, Perfetti, Holtz and Sanderson you like in what order and why? Thx!
Sure. Here are my rankings of that group, along with Jamie Drysdale, and a quick breakdown of why.
Lucas Raymond - think he could be a 70 point winger with high-end transition play. I love that kind of upside alongside Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier.
Cole Perfetti - very real chance he is gone but he is one of the smartest players in the draft and I love his puck skills.
Jamie Drysdale - there are some things I’d like to see cleaned up defensively but he is a zone exit machine, can QB a power play, and eat up a ton of minutes. The ceiling is there.
Alexander Holtz - would like to see him more involved in transition, and improve away from the puck, but this kid has very really 35+ goal potential.
Jake Sanderson - have really grown to like his game in time. Might only be a 25-30 point guy but, if he hits his ceiling, I think he could be a Hampus Lindholm-like defender. Really, there isn’t much separating 3-5 here for me.
Q: I'm 100% on board with Rossi and will be suuuper disappointed if hes gone by #7. What team could you see taking Rossi before he gets to us? I just think its weird that a lot of mock drafts have us taking him, but passing up on someone that dropped like perfetti or raymond to get him, but also almost no mock drafts have detroit or ottawa (teams most likely to take raymond/perfetti) passing on them to take Rossi.
The two teams that stand out to me are Detroit and Anaheim. Steve Yzerman has shown a willingness to a) pass on big names if he feels strongly about somebody and; b) draft undersized players.
Brayden Point is obviously an unfair comparison for basically anybody – he is flat out elite – but Marco Rossi has a lot of those same traits. I could see Detroit being enticed.
I think Anaheim is the other real possibility, especially if Jamie Drysdale is gone (there’s been a lot of linkage there). They just need to stockpile as much talent as possible and Rossi should be ready to play in the NHL as soon as January.
Q: I feel like Josh Anderson is a forgotten about name on the trade market that should be of interest to the Devils. Do you think he’d be a good fit? What would be considered too expensive to give up for him?
I like Josh Anderson quite a bit but I’m not sure he is the right guy for the Devils. He’s had injuries in the past and he plays a robust style – much like Kyle Palmieri – that doesn’t tend to age well. I don’t think paying the high cost of acquisition it’d take to get him from a division rival, and then handing him a rather lucrative contract, is the way to go.
Q: You think the Devils would really take Askarov at #7? I'm thinking it's more a smokescreen that they might.
I think the Askarov thing is just noise. At least I hope it is. Mackenzie Blackwood looks like he can be a very good starter. Heck, he already is at just 23. I just don’t see Tom Fitzgerald using that kind of capital on a goaltender the team doesn’t need when it’s very possible he has the luxury of picking between impact players at every other position.
Let’s say Askarov’s development goes as well as possible and he’s an excellent full-time NHLer – posting a .919 save percentage – in two years. You’re using 7th overall, and waiting two seasons, to get a goaltender with a .003 SV% better than the guy you already have? It doesn’t make sense to me.
I could at least understand, say, Minnesota taking a swing at 9. Their NHL goaltending is poor, old, and they don’t have much in the system. They have incentive to upgrade and hope that Askarov can fast track to the NHL. The Devils don’t.
Yes, I always stress BPA but, again, that stands for skaters. You need four centers, eight wingers, and six defenders every night. There is always room for more talent. You only start one goaltender, and the Devils have a good one.
Q: A somewhat of a hot take that I have been thinking about... the idea of Tampa trading Stamkos. They have proven they can win without him, would free up $8.5M for them and I don't think many teams would have a problem with taking on that contract for 4 years. Might be a type of move that would disenfranchise fans, but could you see Tampa moving Stamkos this offseason?
I think it is very unlikely Stamkos goes anywhere. First and foremost, he has a no-movement clause. He controls his own destiny. Stamkos is the captain of an elite team and lives in a warm weather climate where he’s planted roots. I don’t see any reason he would want to leave. And even if he was willing to go, it’d be tough for the Lightning to win a trade where they’re shipping out a guy who could score 40+ goals any given season. Not to mention, he is soon due an $8.5 million signing bonus. Think ownership would be excited about paying that only to ship him out and have another team pay $1M for his 2020-21 campaign? I doubt it!
Q: We get Rossi, we get another very good piece at 18...who’s a guy you’d love to swing for the fences on at 20 that may be boom or bust?
Noel Gunler and Jacob Perreault are a couple names that come to mind. I think Gunler has a very high offensive ceiling. He can beat you as a shooter or a playmaker. There are some holes in his game but the potential is sky high.
In Perreault’s case, he is one of the best goal scorers in this draft. The Devils have been a below average offensive team for what feels like forever. I could definitely see the appeal in taking a swing here.
Q: In your best case scenario and assuming we can acquire player(s) you’ve referenced before such as Cernak or Dunn, how do you see the D pairings shaking out to start the season?
Let’s say the Devils are able to pull off a trade for Cernak and they sign Brenden Dillon. Just roll with it. I think they could ice something like this:
Brenden Dillon - Damon Severson
Will Butcher - Erik Cernak
Ty Smith - P.K. Subban
That’s not elite but it is very much competent.
Severson can rush the puck, and handle the stretch passes, while Dillon takes care of business around the net. Cernak can be that same kind of rock for Butcher.
Subban still has his moments but he’s is becoming more of a defense-first guy at this point (he was especially good on the PK last season). Smith’s presence could help offset the deteriorating transition game.
Q: I would love to pry Cernak or Sergachev from Tampa, but I think Tampa finds a way to keep them. Do you think it makes sense for the Devils to take on a bad contract and try to add Cal Foote?
A few things here:
a) the Lightning don’t really have bad contracts, per se. The problem is the guys they’d be looking to move have no-trade or no-movement clauses.
b) If somebody like Alex Killorn were willing to go somewhere, they definitely wouldn’t need to attach a prospect like Foote to clear the money.
c) generally speaking, I think the Devils are past the point of taking on bad deals to get futures. They want to start making strides forward and, now more than ever, ownership groups will be hesitant to waste dollars on things that don’t help get immediate results.
Q: Do you think the Devils think about an offer sheet for Matt Barzal or do you think it’s too much draft capital to give up? Also do you think Barzal gets an offer sheet in general from any team?
Well, the Devils don’t own their 2nd round pick so they can’t offer sheet a player in the ~$2.1-4.3M range or in the ~$6.5-10.9M range. That is, um, a bit of a problem if they want to offer sheet a high-end talent like Barzal.
The only option would be to give Barzal $11M+ and part with four 1st round picks. I don’t see that happening because a) it is a *ton* to give up for a team that isn’t even good yet and; b) center is the one position the Devils actually have ample high-end talent at (especially if they draft Marco Rossi at 7).
Q: We've all heard that this draft class is light on defensemen, so Sanderson and Drysdale have risen to the top. I'm curious, how do those two compare against the top defensemen in previous draft classes like Bowen Byram or Victor Soderstrom?
I think Byram has the most upside out of anybody in that group. He would be my clear No. 1. I think Jamie Drysdale comes in at No. 2, with Victor Soderstrom and Jake Sanderson in a close fight for the No. 3 spot.
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