New Jersey Devils notes: Running it back in goal and Simon Nemec

It seems likely Tom Fitzgerald will go with a Vitek Vanecek-Akira Schmid duo next season. Plus, thoughts on Nemec's chances of cracking the opening night lineup.

Follow along on Twitter @ToddCordell | @InfernalAccess

Be sure to join the Discord channel to talk hockey, and everything else, with our writers and subscribers.

---

A few New Jersey Devils notes as we excruciatingly await the conclusion of the 2022-23 season:

On the Devils’ goaltending

There has been a lot of noise surrounding the position since the wheels fell off Vitek Vanecek in the playoffs. I understand it to an extent.

Vanecek did not have a great playoff reputation because his struggles over *checks notes* three games with the Capitals. His very underwhelming play during this year’s run – the first one in which he entered as the unquestioned starter – only added fuel to the fire.

While many are calling for Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald to make a marquee addition between the pipes, a report from Frank Seravalli suggests that is unlikely to happen.

Excerpt below via DailyFaceoff:

Does a team want to get a jump on Blackwood on the UFA market by sending a pick the Devils’ way? That’s where he is heading, as he’s due a hefty qualifying offer that won’t be offered by New Jersey. He’s one of 10 RFAs with a fascinating contractual situation. The Devils are likely to go with Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid next season.

I hope Seravalli is right. As much as everyone wants to throw Vanecek to the wolves right now, the reality is he owns a .909 save percentage over 131 regular season games. That is above average in this day and age.

Not to mention, Akira Schmid just posted a .922 save percentage spanning 18 regular season games – league average was .900 this year – and legitimately stole games in the playoffs. Stole them! Against a Rangers team known for clinical finishing and consistently scoring more than expected.

The kid is 23 years old. He is only just starting his NHL career and he did all that. Sure, ~30 great games doesn’t guarantee a thing going forward. But if Schmid was a former 1st round pick named Carter Johnson he’d be getting the benefit of the doubt and nobody would be calling for an upgrade in goal.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you Vanecek and Schmid is certain to be a fantastic combination and one or both are going to be great next year’s playoffs. There are better bets out there to post strong numbers. At the end of the day, though, those bets are much more uncertain than many would have you believe.

Yes, Vanecek posted the worst 5v5 save percentage of any starter in this year’s playoffs. Right behind him, though, were Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. All of those guys posted sub .900 save percentages and graded out poorly in terms of GSAE and GSAA. It’s possible – if not likely – each would be mentioned by anybody tasked with ranking the top-6 goalies in the league.

The position is a crap shoot. A complete crap shoot. If you throw out the Igors, the leaders in playoff GSAA per 60 are as follows:

1. Adin Hill (acquired for pennies last summer, might not even be backup if Robin Lehner + Logan Thompson were healthy)

2. Sergei Bobrovsky (journeyman Alex Lyon started over him to begin playoffs)

3. Filip Gustavsson (.892 save percentage in 2021-22)

4. Frederik Andersen (middle-tier UFA likely being let go)

5. Laurent Brossoit (started year in AHL)

Soak that in for a moment. Soak. It. In. If I showed you those names in that order prior to the playoffs, you’d think I’m ranking by worst save percentage. Yet that’s the cream of the crop while Hellebuyck, Oettinger, Vasilevskiy, and Linus Ullmark all sit at the bottom.

In a vacuum, I would of course prefer Hellebuyck to what the Devils have for next year’s playoffs. But Hellebuyck out-performing Vanecek/Schmid over, say, 20 games is far less likely than you’d think. And the Devils would have to pay a premium – in the form of assets and cap space – to take that chance.

I love Hellebuyck. I really do. But I’d rather spend $4.25M on Vanecek and Schmid – two goaltenders with strong regular season numbers - and stack the roster in front of them than invest a war chest of assets/dollars into Hellebuyck (already on the wrong side of 30) and sacrifice elsewhere.

If Vanecek and/or Schmid look vulnerable in the regular season, there are always serviceable goaltenders available at the deadline. Cross that bridge if and when it comes.

On Simon Nemec’s NHL chances