New Jersey Devils notes: On the five-game losing skid, Boqvist's struggles, and Bahl
New Jersey Devils notes: On the five-game losing skid, Boqvist's struggles, and Bahl
Despite the lack of recent success, the Devils' process remains solid. Plus, notes on Boqvist's struggles and the need to get Bahl in the lineup more often.
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A few New Jersey Devils notes on this off-day:
There’s light at the end of the tunnel
I’m not going to sit here and tell you everything is perfect with the Devils. Some of the stars have cooled, the Jonas Siegenthaler-Dougie Hamilton pairing has made uncharacteristic mistakes of late, and the goaltending has not been good.
All that being said, things are not nearly as bad as they seem. The Devils have controlled better than 56% of the 5v5 shot attempts over the last five games. That’s the 4th highest output in the league; behind only the Colorado Avalanche, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Carolina Hurricanes. Good teams to be keeping company with, I’d say.
The Devils don’t grade out quite as well in terms of expected goals, however, they still crack the top-10 with a share above 53%.
They have generated 2.94 expected goals per 60, slotting them 7th. That has translated into just 2.00 goals per 60. Why? They’re shooting 5.8%, a far cry from the 8.8% rate they’ve converted at this season (11th best).
Goaltending has also been an issue. Despite sitting top-10 in high-danger chances against/60, the Devils have conceded more than 3 goals against/60 at 5v5 due to poor netminding. Only Chicago and Vancouver rank below the Devils in team save percentage over the last five.
So, by and large, the process has remained strong. Not as good as earlier in the year; but still very good.
As much as anything else, the issue is they’ve been getting PDO’d. Only Chicago, a tanking team that loses every time out, has posted a lower combined SH% + SV% over the last five.
The goaltending isn’t going to suck this bad forever, nor will the team’s scoring woes; especially not while generating quality looks at such a high clip.
Losing five in a row sucks. Losing five in a row as you head into a very difficult string of games sucks even more. But there are still plenty of positive signs beneath the surface. The Devils will be fine.
Jesper Boqvist is struggling
Not many players have been objectively bad for the Devils of late. Boqvist is definitely one of the exceptions.
The 24-year-old has posted a 37 xGF% over the last five, which is worst among the players to dress in each game, and the Devils have been out-scored 4-0 with him on the ice.
Boqvist has only four points this season, and isn’t playing much on a nightly basis, so Lindy Ruff and co. are probably not expecting much offensively.
They just want him to hang in defensively and survive those minutes while the Devils wait for the players higher in the lineup to rest up. Right now that’s not happening.
I know the Devils recently told Boqvist to get a place in New Jersey because he’s here for the season. If he doesn’t start playing better soon, they might be forced to revisit that.
At the very least, he could lose his everyday spot in the lineup. He has to be better.
Let’s Bahl
I understand that Brendan Smith is going to play in his fair share of games. He’s a useful depth player, a well respected veteran, and the Devils value his intangibles.
More importantly, though, is the fact his results have been perfectly fine. Even though he can be an eyesore, he has largely still done his job well.
My issue is that Kevin Bahl has done it better. Bahl has looked very good every time he’s gotten into the lineup and, as good as Smith’s numbers are with Damon Severson on P3, Bahl’s are even better.
Smith with Severson —> 59.55 CF%, 65.08 xGF%
Bahl with Severson —> 62.69 CF%, 70.12 xGF%
The sample size between Bahl and Severson is much smaller, obviously, but the numbers are so, so, good. The Devils might really have something in that pairing. Why not give them some sustained time together and see if that’s the case?
It’s not as if the Devils are piling up the wins and leaving the coaching staff with no reason to look for ways they can even further optimize the lineup.
If the team is that hellbent on using Smith regularly, dress seven defenseman. The 4th line has sucked of late, anyway. Give the stars a couple extra shifts each and roll 7D.
Save for Scott Harrington, who luck boxed his way into a few points with the Sharks, Bahl is the only defenseman in the league with an average Game Score above 0.70 who doesn’t play regularly.
Said Game Score is, uh, 1.24; good for 13th in the NHL. He needs to play.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com, MoneyPuck.com, and HockeyStatCards.com
Smith has one of the only guys to stand up for Nico the other night. I was quite disappointed how the team reacted to that.
This team really needs to play for each other. The constant targeting of nico and no fights or even big hits to answer back was very disappointing. If this team makes it into the playoffs they are going to get steam rolled bc all the other team has to do is take runs at nico and jack to throw them off their game and they will face no consequences. That aspect of the game I think was more frustrating then the loss itself.