New Jersey Devils notes: On Smith's struggles and breaking up the Hughes line
Brendan Smith should be the one to sit when John Marino returns. Plus, why it might be time to pull the plug on this version of the Jack Hughes line.
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A few notes on this off-day:
Let’s talk about Smith
I think Brendan Smith is a useful depth defenseman (or forward!). He is an excellent penalty killer and he has posted pretty good numbers this season when used in a depth role.
For example, Smith owns a positive goal differential and very strong defensive metrics when paired with Kevin Bahl. His on-ice metrics are also excellent alongside Colin Miller. He’s pretty effective playing 3rd pairing minutes with the right partner.
Having him around as a 7th/8th defenseman (when healthy) and extra forward insurance is perfectly justifiable.
What Lindy Ruff did with Smith last night was not. He played Smith in a top-4 role alongside Luke Hughes, who he has absolutely neutered anytime and every time he has played with the youngster all season long.
They have posted absolutely putrid results as a pairing. Not OK. Not bad. Putrid.
That pairing has spent nearly 180 minutes together at 5v5 this season. In that span, the Devils have controlled 38% of the expected goals share and been outscored 12-2.
Those are the kind of numbers you’d expect from a pair of AHL journeymen playing way above their head on a tanking team. Those are not the kind of numbers you’d expect from a pairing featuring one of the best young defenders in the league.
It’s not a Luke thing, either. For one, Luke’s numbers are so, so, good when not playing with Smith. He owns a +7 goal differential (despite bad goaltending all season) and a 57 xGF%. He doesn’t need any specific partner; he just has to be away from Smith.
And Smith playing way above his depths – with a partner he doesn’t mesh with – proved extremely costly last night.
There were multiple goals against where Smith was directly responsible, be it due to failed clearances, over skating the puck, losing his man around the net, or a combination of the three. He was noticeably bad on a night the Devils were the better team for most of the game. And, again, that’s to be expected.
Ruff could’ve played Hughes with Colin Miller. Although the xGF% lags behind, they own a 59 CF% and positive goal differential this season.
Ruff could’ve played Hughes with Kevin Bahl. They are both lefties but, well, Smith is too and the Bahl+Hughes combination actually has good underlyings (over a small sample) and a complimentary pair of skillsets that leave reason to believe it may actually work.
Instead, the Devils iced the worst pairing combination that’s played together for them all year and dropped a pair of points they really could have used.
Smith needs to be removed from the six-man defense the second John Marino returns to health. That would allow the Devils to ice the Jonas Siegenthaler - Simon Nemec duo they really like as well as Hughes+Marino (55 xGF%) and Bahl+Miller (61 xGF%).
Time for change
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