New Jersey Devils notes: On Smith's penalty killing and depth chart irrelevance

Smith has played poorly at 5v5 but quietly been one of the league's best on the PK. Plus, notes on Hughes, Bahl, and why the depth chart doesn't matter.

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A few New Jersey Devils thoughts on this never-ending run of off-days:

A double-edged sword

Brendan Smith’s five-on-five play is a problem and it’s nearly impossible to argue otherwise. He is making noticeable blunders with and without the puck and spending a ton of time in the defensive zone. All of that shows in the numbers.

Smith ranks dead last among 360 qualified players (100+ minutes) in rel xGF%. The Devils’ xG share is ~20% lower when Smith is on the ice than without him.

He has also really hampered Calder candidate Luke Hughes. No. 43 owns a 36.41 xGF% with Smith and *checks notes* a 74 xGF% at five-on-five sans Smith. Yeah, the gap is that drastic.

Even accounting for all that, Lindy Ruff can still justifiably play Smith for a couple of reasons:

1. With Colin Miller out, there isn’t a better alternative to play on the 3rd pairing at even strength (2022-present, Smith owns a +1.8 defensive GAR while Cal Foote sits at -1.8.)

2. The Devils need Smith’s penalty killing.

Let’s say Miller is fully healthy and has gotten up to speed adjusting to the new system. At that point, you can perhaps get creative and dress 7D.

Use Miller at evens and play Smith sparingly up front; only to drop him to D in penalty killing situations.

Whatever the plan may be, I just don’t see Ruff pulling Smith from the lineup on a regular basis. Not when a legitimate case could be made for him as the team’s best – yes, best – penalty killer this season.

More than 100 defenders have logged at least 15 minutes on the PK thus far. Smith ranks 1st attempts against/60, 2nd in high-danger chances against/60, and 3rd in expected goals against/60. He is also one of the few yet to be on for a single goal against.

Even if you believe Smith’s cons at five-on-five outweigh the pros of penalty killing – and that can be argued – I just don’t see much appetite for pulling the plug on an excellent PKer when the team already lost two regulars on D in the off-season.

I would imagine Tom Fitzgerald addresses this at or near the deadline if need be. For now, I don’t see anything changing.

The depth chart is irrelevant for Hughes and Bahl