New Jersey Devils mailbag: On Jesper Bratt's next contract, Alexander Holtz, and more
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I haven’t done a Q&A post in a couple of weeks. With the heart of the off-season long past, and the opening of camps (hopefully) only two or three weeks away, I thought now would be a good time for one.
Let’s dive right in!
Q: Can you explain the thinking behind keeping Nas? Is there a case/argument that Nas will have more opportunity to improve the defense under Ruff than he did under Hynes?
Nasreddine is not a popular figure among Devils fans. In some ways, justifiably so. The team’s defense, as a whole, has not been good at any point with him behind the bench. A lot of changes have been made as a result and he has remained one of the constants. I get the frustration from that respect.
That being said, Nasreddine runs a very good penalty kill. Some may be sick of having that crammed in their face but, well, it is true. The PK has consistently gotten results, and that’s not nothing. Also working in his defense – no pun intended – is that he’s never had a good group of blueliners to play with.
We all hoped that excuse would go out the window in 2019-20. It didn’t. P.K. Subban was the big addition, and he was a complete flop. I don’t think even Nas’ biggest critics would put that on him. Anybody could see Subban was not close to the player he once was.
This is the first year Nasreddine will have a competent crop to work with. Damon Severson and Will Butcher have their faults but they’re solid players. Ryan Murray, when healthy, is a very stable top-4 guy. Ty Smith, one of the best defense prospects in hockey, should be ready to contribute on a full-time basis. Dmitry Kulikov is alright as a defense-first (only, actually) depth piece.
There is enough there for the group to be competent. Not spectacular, but at least respectable. And if it isn’t…I think Nasreddine will run out of chances.
Having good relationships with some of the higher ups – and being relatively well liked by the players – won’t matter by that point. Nor should it.
Q: Rating existing contracts based on performance
If we’re focusing on who is most likely to match, or exceed, the value of their current cap hits next season my favorite non-ELC deals would be:
Kyle Palmieri
Nikita Gusev
Andreas Johnsson
Nico Hischier
Corey Crawford
Damon Severson
Ryan Murray (injury concerns)
I’d have Crawford ranked higher if he were to play more than the 30-35 games he’s expected to over, let’s say, a 72-game schedule. I fully believe in his abilities; he just won’t get enough playing time unless something goes really wrong with Mackenzie Blackwood.
If we’re talking long-term, my top-2 would probably be Nico and Johnsson. I think the former can be a 70-point two-way player and captain material. I have no doubt he’ll be worth the money.
Johnsson, while not signed for nearly as long, should be able to produce what you’d expect from a ~$3.4M player with relative ease.
Q: Might not make sense for the player but if he was for it, what are your thoughts on Bratt long term? I know he has had some injury problems. But if nico and jack progress like we expect, bratts numbers/value should too. Thoughts on giving him a few extra years to save some long term$?
I don’t know that young players want to sign long-term while the financial state of the league is at a low point. Understandably so. But if Bratt decided he’d rather chase cost certainty than to try and maximize potential earnings in the long run – much like Viktor Arvidsson did years ago in Nashville – I’d be all for giving him something with real term.
I think Bratt is exactly the kind of player you want to lock up early. His counting totals don’t pop off the page, however, his rate stats are very promising and the high-end skill is evident on a nightly basis. There is plenty of reason to believe he could really pop offensively. It’s not blind hope.
Bratt also provides real value in transition and his defensive game has grown leaps and bounds in a short period of time. He is developing into more of a two-way threat than I think anyone ever projected.
All signs are pointing upwards for Bratt right now. I believe he’s a breakout waiting to happen, and getting him signed long-term before that happens could save the team a lot of money.
Unfortunately, a bridge deal seems the much more likely scenario.
Q: When can we expect Holtz in the lineup? When can we expect Mercer in the lineup?
I think we will see him in 2021. Whether that is towards the end of the upcoming season – after he finishes up in Sweden – or the campaign that should begin next fall, I don’t know. But I’m confident he will be ready for NHL games in 2021.
Is his game completely polished? Absolutely not. But he’s tied for the team lead in goals in a professional league as an 18-year-old and I’ve seen him more involved off puck. Holtz really is progressing, and there’s plenty of time between now and when he’d be able to come over to continue that. He still has the majority of an SHL season in front of him and is going to play a big role for Sweden at the World Juniors. What we see now vs what we see in a few months should be different.
While Mercer is a really promising prospect, I don’t think we’ll see him for a couple of years. He needs time to add muscle, explosiveness, and continue developing his offensive game.
Q: What does the Devils top 6 forwards look like when they're a playoff team?
This is a fun one. I don’t think the Devils are too far away, however, I’m not expecting playoffs this season. They have some expiring contracts, and Alexander Holtz coming, so that would undoubtedly lead to some change.
Let’s go with this:
Jesper Bratt - Nico Hischier - Alexander Holtz
Nikita Gusev/Andreas Johnsson - Jack Hughes - Brandon Saad
Bratt and Nico work very well together and they both have further room to grow defensively. I think keeping them together makes sense, and I think Holtz’ shooting ability would mesh nicely with those guys.
Lindy Ruff has options with LW2. He can go with the raw skill and playmaking of Gusev, or opt for more of a puck hound-type in Johnsson. Hughes is obviously slotting in as a top-6 C. Then I have Brandon Saad playing with them. Saad is a pending FA and strikes me as the kind of guy the Devils would like to surround their star centers with. He can really skate, he generates chances, and he is experienced.
This top-6 is under the assumption the Devils can’t come to an agreement with Palmieri, and perhaps chase a player that can replace some of that production at a lesser cost/with less risk. It is possible the two sides work out an agreement, of course.
This is just a rough idea I had. Considering Bratt, Gusev, Johnsson and Saad all have played both wings, there would definitely be room to move things around.
Q: Which would you prefer: Hughes & Holtz or Kakko & Rossi?
This may surprise some people but give me Hughes and Holtz.
I’ll start with Hughes vs Kakko. I have always been in Hughes’ corner. I watched, and tracked, plenty games from both players prior to the draft and I was comfortable saying Hughes deserved to be No. 1. I just see better puck skills, neutral zone involvement, and more dynamic ability with Hughes. He has the higher ceiling, in my opinion, and he plays the premium position. Edge Hughes.
I did want Marco Rossi at 7. I did. And I’m not going to pretend otherwise. But that says more about Rossi than Holtz. I just loved Rossi’s combination of vision, puck skills, two-way play, and work ethic. I think he has all the tools to be a high-end two-way center and the thought of having him with Hughes and Hischier for the long haul was mouth watering.
With that said, there is no denying the ceiling of Holtz; especially with the centers on the roster. He may not be as involved in build-up, and he may not be as involved defensively but, at the end of the day, this is a kid who could score 40-50 goals. I think he is an underrated playmaker as well. If he can make some strides without the puck, Holtz should be one of the five best players in this draft.
This isn’t me pumping up Holtz now that he is a member of the Devils. I preferred Rossi, and won’t hide from that, but it’s not like Holtz wasn’t high on my wishlist. He was always up there.
Q: What is a realistic ceiling for Boqvist?
In terms of production? Let’s go with 50 points. That may not sound overly exciting but, well, 50 points is no small feat. Only 63 forwards hit that number this season. Put another way, essentially two forwards per team. It’s a big number.
Anyways, I don’t think the 2019-20 season went as well for Boqvist as anyone hoped or expected. I still believe in him, though. He brought some value to the table in transition – particularly in terms of helping the Devils get out of the defensive zone – and he showed some real flashes with the puck. The skill, and creativity, is definitely there.
He has a long way to go to get to 50 but I do believe in the talent and Nico/Hughes can help get the most out of him if he reaches the level he needs to get to.
I wouldn’t say Boqvist getting to 50 points is likely – we need to see quite a bit of growth – but that’s what I’d consider his ceiling.
Q: Assuming regular 82 game season, if Nico gets 70 pts, Hughes gets 55 pts, and blackwood has a 920 save%, the devils will finish in what place?
If all that were to happen, a wild card spot would be very realistic. Heck, I’d even say likely. I know some games were cut out but only 20 centers had 55 points or more last season. If the Devils have two guys hit that mark, they’ll have a leg up over a lot of teams. Those kind of numbers would mean the team’s skilled wingers are all along for the ride, too. Then you throw in .920 goaltending from the starter? I’d race to sign up for that, especially considering the kind of ‘backup’ goaltending the Devils should get (Corey Crawford has posted a .917 SV% or better in seven of the last eight seasons).
Q: This team has rightfully gotten a reputation for having some woefully poor drafting and developing in the last ten plus years, especially with high round selections. What kind of measures need to be taken to help make sure we don't have another Tedenby/Josefson/Zacha/McLeod/Quenneville situation in terms of adequately developing these kids (as much as we all want to be in on the #MookieSZN train he would be an easy addition to this narrative if he doesn't work out)
I think development is as much – or close to as much – about what the team does after drafting prospects as it is about simply getting talented kids. They’re teenagers with a lot of room to grow on and off the ice, and they need to be pointed in the right direction.
You have to help them find the right training regime to help optimize their bodies based on how they play. And beyond simply suggesting a prospects works on, say, their shot or a specific skill, the finer details need to be addressed and taught. Maybe it is about focusing on dynamic skating strides and improving posture. Maybe it is using a smaller stick to help keep the puck tighter to the body instead of exposed. Maybe it is teaching them how to read the game in a different way or to help weed out poor tendencies (dumping everything out of the DZ, dumping everything into the OZ, attacking wide instead of ever pushing the middle, etc.). Maybe it is getting a coach to help with the mental aspect of the game.
There are so many things that can be done to help groom a player and I think more emphasis needs to be put on that. Not just in New Jersey but across the league and sports in general. Drafting a player, taking a look at development camp, and sending them on their way with a ‘we like where your game is heading, good luck in Owen Sound and we’ll see you next summer!’ is simply not good enough.
Q: Do you see Fitzy bringing in another bottom pair Dman (1 yr deal or PTO) to bring a little more competition?
There is always room for a PTO or two. Unless a golden opportunity presents itself – like Mikhail Sergachev or Erik Cernak becoming available – I think Fitzgerald is done as far as bringing in defenders under contract.
Damon Severson, Ryan Murray, Will Butcher and P.K. Subban are playing every day. Dmitry Kulikov is still accustomed to logging fairly significant minutes and he didn’t sign to sit on the sideline. He is going to dress quite often. And Ty Smith is all but a lock to make the team. Barring anything unforeseen happening, the Devils have their top-6 in place. They also have Connor Carrick as a depth option. Then there are prospects like Colton White, who Jack Han wrote about the other day, and Josh Jacobs who have a few NHL games under their belt.
I think the Devils have enough bodies to be comfortable with where they’re at. If they can add somebody who will make a difference, I’m sure they’ll do that; as they should. But I don’t see them actively pursuing additional No. 6/7/8 defenders. They have enough internal options to fill those roles.
numbers from NaturalStatTrick.com
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