New Jersey Devils mailbag - Nov. 16, 2021

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I haven’t done a Q&A post since Monsignor Pruitt first started at St. Patrick’s church so, with the New Jersey Devils off until Thursday, I figured now was the perfect time to jump back on the horse.

Let’s get right to it.

Q: What would you do with the forward lines when Jack returns to the lineup?

With the emergence of Dawson Mercer, and Andreas Johnsson looking the part of a top-6 forward, Lindy Ruff is going to have a lot of different options at his disposal.

Pending good health, there are two potential lineups that really stand out to me. If Ruff wishes to keep the current top-6 in tact, and jumpstart his struggling sophomores, he could try something like this (order is irrelevant):

Zacha - Hischier - Tatar

Johnsson - Mercer - Bratt

Kuokkanen - Hughes - Sharangovich

Boqvist(?) - McLeod - Vesey

Again, this keeps two working lines (Nico’s owns a 53 xGF%, Mercer’s owns a 58 xGF%) together and would provide a necessary spark to Janne and Yeezy.

If Ruff wants to stick with the current top-6 *and* experiment a little bit at the same time, this is an intriguing possibility:

Zacha - Hischier - Tatar

Johnsson - Mercer - Bratt

Sharangovich - Hughes - Holtz

Kuokkanen - McLeod - Vesey

You’re putting the two most natural snipers on the roster with the best facilitator and two-way player in Jack Hughes.

Kuokkanen’s smarts could nicely compliment that 4th line and he could move up as necessary. Maybe a top-9 line needs a spark. Maybe the Devils are defending a lead late and don’t want to use Holtz. Whatever the case may be, he’s there and ready to pick up some extra shifts.

Q: Regarding Holtz, do you let him figure it out in NJ, or do you send him back down to Utica and let him feast? How would you handle it if you were making that decision?

I would keep Holtz up for now. I know his underlyings aren’t very good, and he is going through some growing pains, but it’s not as if he has been completely overwhelmed the entire time.

He looked really good when given his first look on the top line. He threatened; and not just as a shooter. I think his shot is a big plus and the threat of it helps draw attention to him, thus opening things up for others.

Does he need help defensively and through the neutral zone? Absolutely. Does he need to be sheltered? Yeah, that’d be good.

But this is a team that dresses Mason Geertsen for six minutes a night at times. If they feel he can bring something positive, then Holtz sure can.

Now, if the Devils give Holtz some more games and really can’t find a spot for him; perhaps it makes sense to send him back to Utica. But I think he can help offensively. Even if he starts lower in the lineup, and simply gets extra shifts in the offensive zone while trailing, there is a way to use him.

Q: Do you think Mackenzie Blackwood makes team Canada with the way he is playing?

There are a few things working in Blackwood’s favor here. First and foremost, he’s healthy and playing well. The sample size is small but he has very much looked like the Blackwood of old; not the version we saw post-COVID a year ago. That’ll help his cause.

So, too, will everything that is happening around him. Marc-Andre Fleury, at times, has looked lost in Chicago. His play is trending upwards but we’re still looking at a guy who has allowed 7.7 goals more than expected through 10 games.

Jordan Binnington has been solid but unspectacular for St. Louis and Carey Price is yet to play as he has understandably taken time away to work on his mental health.

There could be a spot or two available in goal for Canada that we wouldn’t have anticipated but a month ago.

Blackwood will have competition – Carter Hart also looks like he’s going to rebound in a big way – but he has a good shot if he continues to play well.

Q: Seems like a real hole on this team is a top 6 winger. Jack coming back always elevates his linemates, but they need a sniper, even tho the hope is Holtz becomes that guy. do you think they may trade for one? what targets are realistic, or do they still go internal? (Foote)

I don’t think that is something they’re going to address any time soon. The season is just getting started; sellers won’t be trading big pieces for quite a while. As such, it’s hard to isolate trade targets.

I believe the Devils will be banking on the scoring coming from within. A healthy Jack Hughes makes anybody will a pulse a capable scorer. Dougie Hamilton’s presence on the backend adds some goals as well.

Having those two healthy and playing on a nightly basis will make a big difference. Sooner or later the likes of Yegor Sharangovich and Tomas Tatar are going to start filling the net as well.

If we get to the deadline, the Devils are in the mix, and those guys are still struggling then maybe they’ll look externally. But for now they’ll be relying on what they have; and there is reason they should expect more.

Q: How big of an issue is Pavel Zacha not scoring at 5v5 if he continues to light the lamp in other game states?

I don’t think it’s a problem right now for a few reasons:

• Zacha is helping drive play at 5v5. He ranks 3rd – behind only Nico and Bratt – in xGF% during that gamestate. He’s been a net negative in the past so that’s a big step in the right direction.

• He is performing much better defensively. The Devils are giving up fewer shots, chances, expected goals, etc. with Zacha on the ice than previous years. Naturally, that’s leading to fewer goals against. If they’re not giving up us much, it’s not as imperative for him to score at the other end.

• As mentioned, Zacha is getting it done in other gamestates. He’s leading the team in goals and tied for the lead in points. If he produces in other situations, and can stay afloat at 5v5 (rather than losing the battle significantl like in recent years), then he’s a valuable piece.

Q: How well do you see the Devils doing when Hughes returns with the emergence of Mercer?

Prior to the season I thought the Devils could squeak into a playoffs. I’m even more confident they have what it takes now. With Dawson Mercer playing as well as he has, the Devils should have three quality scoring lines when Hughes is healthy. That matters.

Anchored by Dougie Hamilton and Ryan Graves, their defense is in better shape than in the past. Not to mention, Mackenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier look ready to provide above average netminding.

If the power play can get going a little bit, there’s no reason this team can’t make the dance.

Q: How do we get Sharangovich going? What's wrong with his game or is he stuck in his head?

I, like everyone, agree that Sharangovich’s early season results are a concern. He absolutely needs to provide more.

I don’t think his lack of production stems from garbage play, though. I think Sharangovich has played fine (not great, fine). He just can’t catch a break.

Last year Sharangovich averaged 14.92 shot attempts and 8.43 scoring chances per 60 minutes.

This year Sharangovich is averaging 13.89 shot attempts and 8.06 scoring chances per 60 minutes.

So, yeah, his individual numbers are down. But not by much.

The (much) bigger issue is a lack of puck luck. Sharangovich is shooting 0% and the Devils are scoring on just 3% of their shots when he’s no the ice at 5v5.

A year ago Sharangovich shot 10.42% and the Devils scored on 8.43% of their shots with Yeezy on the ice. Those are drastic differences.

Could Sharangovich play better? Absolutely. Could he use some confidence? You bet!

But Andreas Johnsson-esque puck luck has more to do with his lack of production than poor performance, which leaves reason to be optimistic he can get back on track sooner than later.

Q: Who plays an NHL game first: Reilly Walsh or Nikita Okhotiuk?

Let’s go with Okhotiuk. The Devils have plenty of defenders in Walsh’s archetype so more would have to happen for them to be tempted to give him a look; especially after his underwhelming camp. He made too many head scratching turnovers and was exposed defensively.

Okhotiuk plays more of the physical, simple style the Devils would be looking for from someone utilized in a depth role.

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numbers via NaturalStatTrick and MoneyPuck