New Jersey Devils Mailbag: Free agency, targets from cap-strapped teams, prospect readiness, and more

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You all know the drill by now. (Almost) every week you flood me with quality questions, and every week I do my best to answer them.

This might be the last one before the draft so I touched on that *a lot*.

Let’s dive right in.

Q: How pro ready are the Devils 3 first rounders and when should we expect them to make an appearance with the big club?

Alexander Holtz has some thinks to work on (transition, defensive involvement, etc.) but his offensive game is already very good. I think it is NHL caliber, to be honest. I think he’s going to stay in Sweden for what is shaping up to be a strong season and then push for a job full-time in 2021-22.

Dawson Mercer, in my opinion, was a steal where he was selected. I like the skill, I like the balance, and I like the drive. He needs to fill out and add some explosiveness. I think he is still a couple years away.

Shakir Mukhamadulin is, in my opinion, at least a couple years away. His game is still so raw. The tools are all there but he’s still figuring out how to use them. At times, it’s almost like he is unaware of what he is capable of. He needs to improve his decision making and, as a converted forward, I think he simply needs time to really learn and adjust to what it takes to play the position well at the pro level.

Q: Thoughts on Mikael Granlund? Raw production was a little down last year but his possession metrics look solid from what I see. Turns 29 in February but he could be a good winger beside Hughes.

I am a fan of Granlund. I think he’d be a good fit in New Jersey based on what they need.

He is not going to light the world on fire but he is a capable offensive player. His playmaking, in particular, is very good. He’s also a good puck transporter, forechecker, and his play away from the puck is strong.

Granlund is somebody who could handle himself on the top line against stiff competition, or drop a little lower in the lineup and do some of the heavy lifting defensively – and on the forecheck – for Jack Hughes.

The Devils aren’t in a position where it makes sense to spend big, or commit term, to free agents. If the price is reasonable on, say, a three-year deal, I’d be for it.

Q: Is it time to move on from Will Butcher?

Not unless a trade offer too good to refuse is tabled. The Devils are rather shallow on left defense and, to be honest, I think Butcher is better than most people give him credit for.

Is he a great skater? Absolutely not. Can he be worked over in the defensive zone at times? Yep! But many seem to focus on what he can’t do and completely ignore what he can do.

Butcher is probably the best defenseman on the roster when it comes to successfully breaking out of the defensive zone. That’s important, especially now that the Devils actually have some talent up front.

While Butcher’s power play efficiency has dropped since his rookie season (understandably so given the supporting talent at times), he is still a capable PP QB.

He is an underrated contributor at 5v5 as well. Butcher is 59th in points since entering the league. There are 62 top pairing jobs so, in terms of raw production, he has produced like a 1st liner at even-strength.

Some of the many notables below Butcher on the totem pole: Kevin Shattenkirk, Tony DeAngelo, Nate Schmidt, Cam Fowler, Vince Dunn, Justin Faulk and Oscar Klefbom. Some of those guys played fewer games but, well, availability is the best ability.

I’m not saying Butcher is the best thing since sliced bread. He does have his flaws. But he has plenty of strengths as well (breaking the puck out, in-zone passing, PP play, etc.) and I look forward to seeing what he can do in Lindy Ruff’s system.

Q: Should they take a look at Dominik Kahun?

Should I take a look at a Red Bull today? There is your answer.

I have no idea why Buffalo didn’t retain him but somebody else is going to benefit greatly.

Kahun has as many 5v5 goals as Evgeny Kuznetsov, Bo Horvat, and Anthony Mantha since entering the league. He is an above average shooter. Plus-finishers are very nice to have when Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes and Nikita Gusev, among others, are on your roster.

Importantly, Kahun is not an empty-calorie middle-6 scorer. His offensive impacts are very good. He’s not Mark Stone but his defensive game is adequate as well.

He is somebody who can play way up the lineup in a pinch. He’s also somebody who can chip in some goals playing a depth role alongside Pavel Zacha and/or Travis Zajac.

Simply put, Kahun is a solid player. He’s not special but he is very useful. He likely wouldn’t command all that much in term or dollars and, at 25, he could end up being a quality support piece for years to come.

Q: Which of the players who spent most of their time in Bing last year do you most expect to take the step in being consistently in the big club's lineup this year?

Janne Kuokkannen and Nick Merkley.

Kuokkanen put up 48 points in 56 AHL games last season. He is smart, responsible, and a very good passer. I think he has potential to be a good, modern day, bottom-6 forward and possesses the kind of skillset Ruff would like to have in his lineup.

Similar can be said of Merkley. I’m not sure how high his ceiling is but he did show flashes offensively last season while posting very strong relative impacts at 5v5. At the very least, he’ll be given a good in camp.

Q: Looking into your crystal ball, how do you think the Palmieri/Gusev saga's work themselves out?

My stance was always trade Palmieri, re-sign Gusev. Now? I could see an argument for keeping both.

Palmieri isn’t going to sign for pennies but COVID implications could prevent him from getting as much money/term as he otherwise would. I think GM Tom Fitzgerald will be very careful but, depending on the price, I could see him caving on a deal as long as four years. Whether Palmieri is willing to take that kind of contract, or wishes to try his luck a year from now when things will (hopefully) be a little better, remains to be seen.

Gusev strikes me as somebody who won’t be too difficult to extend. I think he is happy with where he is at and the role he took on as the season progressed. If the Devils pay him fairly, I think he’d be happy to stick around. Given his style of play – it is not built on speed or power, which are traits that tend to really decline with age – I don’t see a ton of risk in giving him mid-range term.

I lean a little towards Palmieri being traded and am pretty confident Gusev will be sticking around.

Q: Where will guys like Reilly Walsh, Kevin Bahl, Nolan Foote fit into the team for this upcoming season? Any chance we see them breaking the main roster?

All three are going to be in Binghamton. Walsh needs to work on his defensive game, as mentioned when he signed, and adjust to pro hockey. Bahl needs to work on…everything but his physical presence. Nolan Foote has played, like, two hockey games in 2020. They will need time to develop and/or get up to speed.

Of the bunch, I think Foote will probably play the most NHL games next season. He is the furthest along in terms of being NHL-ready and physically ready. If the Devils are out of it, or suffer some injuries, I could see him getting a good run towards the end of the season.

Q: Is Mike Hoffman a fit?

If he’s willing to take a Taylor Hall-type deal – although at less money – it is possible. Come to New Jersey, mooch off Hischier/Hughes at 5v5, score on the power play, and then look to cash in next season.

Having added Ryan Murray, Andreas Johnsson and Corey Crawford without losing anything of note off the roster, it is clear the Devils want to at least be competitive next season.

Hoffman’s goals *could* help them do that. If the Devils still struggle, they could simply move him at the deadline for assets that will help in the big picture.

I do think Hoffman is more of a fit if the Devils plan on moving Palmieri. They could get a quality return and, in the short-term, Hoffman could replace Palmieri’s goals and play a similar role on the PP.

Q: Is Zacha a legit 3C? Will McLeod or Maltsev have a role post Zajac?

I don’t think Zacha is a 3C on a good team. He just brings too little value at 5v5 to be considered such. While he is flat-out elite on the PK, his 5v5 defensive impact is actually rather ‘meh’ – as is his offensive output. He’s more of a 4C.

Quite honestly, I think Maltsev might have more of a future in New Jersey than McLeod. He plays more of a north-south, heavy game you tend to see in bottom-6ers. Maltsev has NHL size, is better at getting to the paint, and might offer more defensively.

Q: What do you think is more likely, and offer sheet for an RFA, or a trade for a top 4 Dman/top 9 forward on a cash strapped team?

Definitely the latter. For whatever reason, GMs almost never use offer sheets – even when teams are in miserable situations financially. Every off-season we hear ‘this is the year’ and then, like, 20 quality RFAs sit waiting on contracts for months while nobody forces the issue.

I think the Devils are trying to leave themselves some flexibility so, if a team like Tampa Bay gets to the point where they have to pull the trigger on something they don’t want to do, they can pounce.

Q: T-Fitz is clearly lurking in the shadows waiting for the fallout of TB/NYI/VGK etc...(as he should be)...given all the teams on this list, what's your "TOP-5 TARGET LIST" from these financially irresponsible teams.

Based on a combination of need and skill level, here is my top-5 from cap-strapped teams:

1. Mikhail Sergachev

2. Jakub Vrana

3. Vince Dunn

4. Erik Cernak

5. Alex Tuch

I didn’t list any Islanders because the only way they’re getting Mathew Barzal or Ryan Pulock is with a massive offer sheet, which is about as likely as me never having another Red Bull.

Q: The Devils roster is going to go through a major overhaul during the next two years. What prospects in our system are you hoping to be in the lineup at the the start of the 22-23 season?

Quite a few. I’d say Nolan Foote, Ty Smith, and Alexander Holtz are flat-out locks to be in the lineup by then unless something goes catastrophically wrong. Dawson Mercer is likely to be there as well.

I think Walsh has a good chance if he can improve his defensive game. The Devils will definitely want his puck-moving ability. Mookie is a bit of a wild card because of the rawness of his game. If he can make strides in the KHL against men this season and next, I think he is a pretty good bet as well.

Bahl will probably get every chance but I don’t really believe in his talent (I hope I am wrong).

In terms of guys without as much hype, I could see Fabian Zetterlund carving out a bottom-6 role for himself.