New Jersey Devils mailbag - 02/04/21

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I generally like to do a Q&A post every week, or close to it, but the last one came before the season started.

With the New Jersey Devils in the midst of a COVID-induced break (get healthy, everyone!) I figured now would be a great time to jump back into the swing of things.

As usual, you all peppered me with good questions. Let’s get into them.

Q: Now that we've seen how the team plays, how do you see this team compare against the teams in the East division when fully healthy?

Good question. Going team-by-team might be the best way to break things down.

I think Boston is the class of the division. They’ve lost once in regulation through 10 games and just received the best reinforcements imaginable with a healthy David Pastrnak. I don’t see anybody better.

Philadelphia has played like garbage at 5v5 for large stretches of the season. Even so, they’re tied for tops in the East in points. They will regress if their 5v5 play continues to be so poor, however, essentially the same roster finished 9th in CF% and 14th in xGF% a season ago. I have a hard time believing they’re as bad as they’ve been. I think they’re going to take a step forward, although they may need Sean Couturier’s back before that really happens.

The Devils are a clear step behind Washington as well. They’ve dealt with as many injuries, and COVID cases, as almost anybody and yet they’re 6-1-3 and lead the division in goals. It doesn’t seem like they’re going anywhere.

After that, all bets are off. Every team is so flawed. Pittsburgh has a loaded top-6 but questions on defense and their goaltending is terrible (it will probably remain so). The New York teams are flawed at opposite ends of the rink (offense for NYI, defense for NYR). Buffalo has looked good at times. Other times, they’ve lost – and been out-played – by teams whose rosters were half made of newcomers in the NHL (Mikhail Maltsev, Yegor Sharangovich, Michael McLeod, Nathan Bastian, Janne Kuokkanen, Jesper Boqvist, Ty Smith, etc.).

I would currently rank the division something like this:

Tier 1: Boston

large gap

Tier 2: Washington, Philadelphia

Tier 3: Pittsburgh, New York (Islanders)

Tier 4: New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, Buffalo Sabres (goaltending is hurting an otherwise much improved team)

The Devils have shown real signs they can jump up a tier. They’re holding up surprisingly well at 5v5 (sitting 14th with a 51.32 xGF%) and, again, missing a bunch of key players. But they need to sustain that level of play and take a significant leap forward on special teams in order to have a real shot at playoffs.

For now, I put them a peg below the five in my top-3 tiers. I’m more optimistic they can jump up than I was prior to the season, though.

Q: Bigger (pleasant) surprise in the early going: Kuli or Mikey?

This is close but I’ll go with Michael McLeod. The former, while not exactly an offensive superstar, is a long-time NHLer with a history of providing plus-defence. McLeod was looking like a fringe player at best.

Last season he posted a 40.52 CF%, 46.61 xGF%, and averaged 1.53 high-danger chances per 60 at 5v5. He was always running around out of structure and continuously forced to the outside in the offensive zone.

This year his underlying numbers are remarkably strong by any standards. He owns a 52 CF%, 56 xGF%, and is generating 4.49 high-danger opportunities per 60. For perspective, Nathan MacKinnon, Kevin Fiala, Sidney Crosby, and Mark Scheifele are creating HD chances at a lesser rate. Small sample size, obviously, but that shows you how good of a job McLeod is doing at getting to the paint right now.

He has played amazing well and, to me, is perhaps the biggest surprise on the entire roster.

Q: Other than an injury, what is it honestly going to take to see Will Butcher in the lineup?

Good question. I don’t know if Lindy Ruff feels Butcher is redundant, or simply hasn’t liked what he’s seen in practices, but he sure doesn’t seem too eager to give Butcher a look.

That the team’s largely been competent, and will soon have Sami Vatanen back in the mix, doesn’t bode well for Butcher.

I don’t know for sure what is going on here. What I will say is that once coaches make up their mind on a player, it can be hard to change their mind. If that’s what happened…yikes!

I mean, look at how John Hynes handled Damon Severson over his tenure in New Jersey. I feel Hynes was too focused on what Severson couldn’t do and not what he could do, and he never really unleashed Severson as a result. This could be a similar situation.

Q: What do you think has been the biggest contributing factor to the improved play of McLeod and Wood?

I think the speed, aggressiveness, and mentality Lindy Ruff wants the team to play with. He isn’t about playing conservative, low-event hockey and avoiding the big mistake. He wants his guys to go out and play. The increased pace certainly helps electric skaters like McLeod and Wood. The aggressiveness has allowed them to go balls-to-the-wall on the forecheck. And the confidence they’ve gained from getting results only adds fuel to the fire.

Q: Do you think the terrible start Gusev and Palmieri have had brings down the amount of money and term they ask for an extension? And how does their poor results affect the odds of keeping them since the return would probably be a lot less in a trade (in the event that they don't significantly improve)?

Yes and no. They’ve largely looked ineffective and the counting totals aren’t there. From that respect, it certainly hasn’t helped.

With that said, the Devils have played nine games. Nico Hischier has played in zero. So, one of them – if not both – are playing away from Nico or Hughes on any given night. They’ll both benefit from a complete group of centers.

Also, nine games is nine games. If this is the kind of production we see in the next couple months, yeah, they’re going to take a financial hit. But there is lots of time to get on track.

A proper PP1 setup would help as well. In Palmieri’s case, especially, the lack of production is self inflicted by the team’s coaching staff. With all due respect, I don’t know how the team could’ve possibly reached the conclusion that putting Palmieri – the team’s best sharpshooter – in front of the net is a good idea.

Q: When fully healthy (our Swiss Prince as well), how do you see the Devils lines stacking up. Really digging that Wood, Bastian, and Mikey line. Also, with all 4 goaltenders healthy, which one has the inside track on the backup job?

With the assumption the Devils won’t take Pavel Zacha out of the lineup, I would probably go with something like this:

Nikita Gusev - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri

Andreas Johnsson - Jack Hughes - Jesper Bratt

Pavel Zacha - Travis Zajac - Janne Kuokkanen

Miles Wood - Michael McLeod - Nathan Bastian

I would love to see Jesper Boqvist and/or Yegor Sharangovich given shots in the LW3 spot, though.

As for part two of the question, I’d *guess* Aaron Dell is still penciled into the G2 slot because he has performed at an average-to-above-average level in three of four years as a backup in the NHL. Track record matters; at least I think it will.

That said, Scott Wedgewood and, to a lesser extent, Eric Comrie are making the decision more difficult than expected.

Q: McLeod has found a new gear to his game and seems to be slowly figuring it out. He will never live up to his 12th overall spot but do you see him having a better future then a career 4th liner if he keeps this up

I think he will always be a B6 guy. I just don’t see enough high-end talent to really move up the lineup. The hands don’t match the feet at times and it’s not like he is a sharpshooter.

I could, one day, see him playing his way into a 3C role where he takes care of a lot of the neutral zone work and gets to the net while his wingers focus on creating.

Q: Kulikov is surpassing all expectations what is of more value. Keep him as a competent player or trade him while his value is at its peak at the deadline?

It depends where the Devils are. If they have a real shot at the playoffs, I would keep him. The experience would be good for the kids and, with Mackenzie Blackwood between the pipes, you never know what could happen.

I think GM Tom Fitzgerald has to sell him off if the Devils don’t have a realistic shot. As well as he has played to date, he is not going to be a mainstay on the back-end long-term. The Devils would be better off landing another solid draft pick or (like Kuokkanen last year) that they could get something from sooner than later.

And, hey, they could always bring him back at a later date a la Sami Vatanen.

Q: Why is Ty Smith going to win the Calder trophy?

I really don’t think he’ll be able to keep up with Kirill Kaprizov in the Calder race. Kaprizov is too good, too productive, and too flashy, not to separate himself from the pack in time.

Depending on usage, I could see Smith being a finalist. He has looked very good with Damon Severson and they’ve garnered awesome results together. If that pairing sticks, and Smith can carve out a real role on PP1, the potential is there.

Q: A fun one: beyond Palms/Goose, we have lots of guys on 1-year deals, Baejac on his last year and almost no one signed beyond 2022. We have a good young core and also have a ton of cap space. Predict what next year’s lineup looks like (or at least how you'd love to see it).

Oh, this is a fun one. I’m going to be conservative with this build and try to come up with something that is a) realistic and; b) doesn’t involve trading tons of young players/futures to pull off. I’m not saying there won’t or couldn’t be more moves made, but I’m going to keep it as simple as possible.

Jesper Bratt - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri/Nikita Gusev (assuming one is back)

Andreas Johnsson - Jack Hughes - Alexander Holtz

Jesper Boqvist/Yeezy - Travis Zajac (cheap extension) - Janne Kuokkanen

Miles Wood - Michael McLeod - Nathan Bastian

Ryan Murray - Damon Severson

Ty Smith - Adam Larsson

Will Butcher/Dmitry Kulikov - P.K. Subban

Mackenzie Blackwood / Antti Raanta

Newcomers: Holtz, Larsson, Raanta.

What I did here is stuck with The Plan. I promoted Holtz and bet on the continued development of the team’s very young forward core to take the next step and give the team a potent offense.

On the back-end I brought back a familiar face to pair with Smith and give him a reliable defensive presence to play with.

Then, in goal, I dipped into the free agency waters and brought in a top-end backup who can step in and give the team above average net minding whenever Blackwood needs some rest or is injured.

Q: Most parents try to deny that they have a favorite but we all know the truth. Of your Large Adult Sons, who is your favorite?

Narrowing this down is hard. I’m not sure I can pick just one.

I’ll cheat a little and say that Nico Hischier is my favorite son on the Devils. I love his skillset, his work ethic, his personality; everything about him. He is a model player in today’s NHL.

What separates him from some other sons of mine is the circumstances he joined the team under. If you don’t remember, a lot of people wanted Nolan Patrick instead. A lot.

I was one of the conductors on the Hischier train and, although Patrick’s health hasn’t helped, he has very clearly proven to be the right choice in the Nico vs Nolan debate.

I put in a lot of time into taking notes/tracking data to form the best opinion possible so it feels good to be right.

As a bonus, my all-time favorite son for draft reasons might be Rasmus Andersson. I loved him from the first second I saw him take the ice in Barrie Colts training camp. While a lot of people had Lawson Crouse ahead of guys like Mitch Marner and Travis Konecny, and gave Andersson 2nd/3rd round grades, I gave Andersson a clear 1st round grade and ranked him ahead of Crouse. That was seen as extremely bold (if not stupid) and it worked out nicely.

Q: How did you become a Devils fan?

Long story short, I always watched hockey with my parents and brothers growing up. My dad was a Leafs fan so naturally I watched a lot of their games. I always cheered for them; except when they played New Jersey. I loved Martin Brodeur and wanted the Devils to win when I could watch them. It escalated from there and they became my favorite team in sports.

Q Not so much Devils related but I'm interested. What are your career goals in hockey? Running an analytics department? GM?

I would like to work for an NHL team. Whether it be data-based, scouting, a combination of the two, that’s my goal. I love team-building and have always wanted to be a part of it.

With that said, I am happy with what I’m doing right now. I write about the NHL every day. I scout a lot of OHL games (when the league is actually going). I track data for the Kelowna Rockets. I’m into DFS and betting for the EliteFantasy and their network of sites. I do a lot of things I love and I do them from home. It’s hard to beat that.

Pretty much the only way I’d dramatically change what I’m doing is for the right NHL opportunity. I’d love for that to happen but, if it doesn’t, I’ll still be content.

numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com 

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