Meier March is in full effect...kind of

Timo Meier's scoring outputs have increased but is he actually playing better?

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By JP Gambatese (@JP_Gambatese)

Death, taxes, and Timo Meier in March.

Since the calendar flipped to the third month of the year, Meier has piled up seven goals and nine points across 14 games.

I’ve been riding the Timo train all season long, so it’s great to finally see the results follow suit to the phenomenal play he’s been supplying the Devils most of the year. 

There’s one caveat to all of that, though, and it’s that he hasn’t actually been playing that well.

Meier has definitely had his moments to shine – his performance against the Vancouver Canucks was electric (two goals, 52.46% xGF%, nine shot attempts) and he’s had two games with xG shares of over 70%. 

Overall, though, the numbers have been pretty middling outside of the production. 

Since the beginning of March, Timo ranks 9th on the team (among players who have logged at least four games) in xGF%. That might not sound bad, but the team has largely struggled this month, and 9th on the team turns out to be an underwhelming xGF% of 47.13%. 

Prior to March, Meier had the underlying on-ice numbers to back up the goal-scoring surge he’s had of late. Through the end of February, his xGF% was an astounding 57.06% – the best on the team and 10 points higher than it has been this month.

Both offensively and defensively, he has fallen off a bit; his xGF/60 decreased from 3.12 to 2.70 and his xGA/60 increased from 2.35 to 3.03. 

Even from an individual level, things have dropped off for Timo. His shot attempts per hour haven’t changed all that much, dropping from 20.55 to 20.11. His individual scoring chances per 60 minutes are largely the same, too, barely decreasing from 10.41 to 10.33.

What has changed, though, is that he’s generating ~one fewer high-danger chance per hour and is producing 0.22 fewer ixG himself as a result.

Again, this doesn’t necessarily match the eye test, but I have a sneaking suspicion that it’s just because the puck is finally hitting the back of the net for him. 

Things were great for Meier from an on-ice perspective from when Jack Hughes went down with injury through March 11, with the worst performance of his from an expected goal share being 55.34%. Since, though, he’s had more performances with an xGF% in the 20s than in the 50s. 

Particularly, the stretch from Edmonton through Calgary was rough for Meier (and the top line as a whole), with xGF% performances of 24.90%, 25.19%, 21.51%, and 39.09%.

Excluding that stretch – 30% of the month, mind you – things haven’t been bad, but at the very least they haven’t been up to par with what the star winger has supplied the Devils the rest of the season.

In the last four games, Meier has performed better – he and his line have been occupying the offensive zone a lot more and the underlying metrics have been much stronger. 

The Devils will need him to channel that energy if they want to solidify a playoff spot soon, even if the chances are already overwhelmingly likely of them making it anyway.

More importantly, if the Devils want to make any sort of noise in the playoffs, Timo is going to need to get into the zone.