Mackenzie Blackwood deserves real consideration for a spot on Team Canada

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Believe it or not, we are less than one full year away from the beginning of the 2022 Olympics. Yes, they’re coming that soon.

With just under a year to go, major media outlets – such as TSN and The Athletic – are understandably trying their hands at predicting what rosters might look like; particularly, for Team Canada and USA.

While I haven’t necessarily been surprised by any of the names projected to hold down roster spots, that doesn’t mean I agree with all of the choices.

One New Jersey Devils player, in particular, is not getting the recognition he deserves. Mackenzie Blackwood.

Seemingly everyone is penciling in Carey Price, Carter Hart, and Jordan Binnington as Team Canada’s three goaltenders. While that is probably how things will play out (especially with Blues GM Doug Armstrong running the ship), I don’t think it should be. At least not if we’re picking based on performance.

Tuukka Rask and Philipp Grubauer – two goaltenders on powerhouse teams – are the only starters who have posted higher 5v5 save percentages than Blackwood (.929) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season.

Yes, Blackwood out-performed Price, Hart, Binnington, and 2020 Vezina winner, Connor Hellebuyck, during that period.

If we isolate Grade A chances, Blackwood has fared even better. Blackwood’s .872 save percentage vs high-danger shots bested each and every starter.

He saw a lot of them, too, as just seven goaltenders – Corey Crawford being the lone Canadian – faced more expected goals per 60 than Blackwood.

Want me to keep going? I will.

Last season Blackwood ranked 4th in the NHL in save percentage among expected. Admittedly, Carter Hart did finished a spot ahead of Blackwood in that regard.

Blackwood gave up rebounds on just 3.7% of the shots he faced. That was again good for 4th in the NHL and, as was the case in those key 5v5 metrics, Blackwood bested the three Canadian netminders sitting above him in the depth chart.

‘Forget about 5v5 stats. Look at the big picture!’

Okay, let’s do that.

Blackwood’s .916 save percentage from 2019-present slots him ahead of Binnington (.912), Hart (.911), and Price (.908). So, too, does his Goals Saved Above Average number (+12.09)

I know Carey Price is Carey Price. I know Carter Hart is one of the league’s brighter stars (and he has playoff experience). I know Jordan Binnington has a Stanley Cup ring. I get it.

But a real case can be made that Blackwood out-performed all of them while largely playing behind a train wreck of a defensive team.

I know track record and experience counts for something. I do. But if we go back to include the 2018-19 season, Blackwood has still been as good or better than all of his competition.

At what point does that matter?

I mean, the Olympics are a short tournament. What players have done in the past is irrelevant (see Drew Doughty). It’s about what they can do now.

And, right now, Blackwood sure looks like one of Team Canada’s three best options in goal.

numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com, Evolving-Hockey.com and MoneyPuck.com

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