Lindy Ruff is changing what it means to protect a lead

This year's version of the New Jersey Devils have been historically good while playing from ahead. CJ Turtoro explains in his latest.

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By CJ Turtoro (@CJTDevil)

In many sports, hockey among them, there is a well-established analytical phenomenon called “score effects.”

In short, teams play differently when they’re ahead versus when they’re behind or versus when they’re tied; and this is the name for the change in play we observe when one in those circumstances. 

In hockey, the most common manifestation of this is that teams who are losing tend to shoot (and score) more than the team winning down the stretch. It has been shown that this is driven primarily by the tendency of a leading team to be more risk-averse.

Just to use this year as an example, according to NaturalStatTrick’s statistics in per hour performance, teams that are currently leading are getting outshot 60-52, out-chanced 30-27, and outscored 2.6-2.5.

You might expect that the losing team would be pressing more and generating more shot attempts, but you’d think that, if the leading team has calibrated their priorities properly, that they’d at least do a good job at limiting dangerous attempts and certainly goals. But they don’t. Teams are giving up shots, chances and goals (2.58) at a faster rate when leading than when trailing (2.51) or tied (2.48). 

On their face, the Devils seem like a team that should be uniquely susceptible to this sort of effect. This is a young team that, until very recently, was defined by their defensive lapses turning into quick rush shots against.

That seems like exactly the kind of team that would be gripping their stick a little tighter late in the game and therefore open themselves up to the deluge of scoring opportunities against. 

And yet, somehow, the Devils have been the most dominant team in the NHL when they are up on the scoreboard.

If that isn’t convincing enough to say that Lindy Ruff’s Devils are changing what it means to protect a lead, here’s that same graph for the entire analytics era (since 2007). Teams to the right have great process (expected goals), teams at the top have great results (goals), and teams at the upper right are the wagon of a team known as the 2023 New Jersey Devils.

This is is not only a noteworthy development but a fundamental departure from what both the NHL and the Devils themselves have done historically.

In the graph below, the diagonal line would be teams that have the same ratio of expected goals when they are ahead vs when they are behind. Teams to the upper left are prone to turtling – going into a defensive shell which often makes them unable to hold leads. Teams at the lower right perform even better when leading than before. 

In Lindy Ruff’s first season, the Devils were the turtliest team in the turtle club. They controlled 8% less of the xGs when leading (41%) than in all situations (49%). That’s the worst dropoff for the Devils in the analytics era (since 2007) and the 7th worst dropoff of any team in the analytics era. 

By last year, the Devils improved to about league-median with 51% in all situations and a 48% when leading. Now, the Devils are pulling back less than they ever have; and it’s not just relative to their own past performance – they are pulling away from the league as well. 

They have the 3rd highest goal ratio (65%) when playing with the lead in NHL history (analytics era), the 3rd highest expected goal ratio (57.4%), and the 10th lowest xG% dropoff from with-lead performance relative to all-situations ever.

This a relatively new development in NHL history recent analytical behemoths (2021 Avs, this year’s Canes) make up the other top teams in xG ratio with the lead. The Devils are the most recent iteration; but also the most potent in terms of actual goals.

It’s perhaps not a surprise that in an NHL season defined by the frequency of multi-goal comebacks, the Devils have only allowed one such game – and the Rangers needed overtime to complete that. The Devils are tied with seven other teams for the fewest multi-goal comebacks allowed.

Ultimately, you have to credit Ruff for taking this mix of young players and new faces and getting them to buy into a scheme so much that they stick to it even when their psychological impulse may be to do otherwise.

Over at Hockeyviz.com, there are coaching impact graphs. Typically you’ll see the “shell” lines go left and a little up as teams get duller (and a bit worse) when leading late. Lindy does NOT have that impact. 

When the Devils are leading late, the Lindy Ruff Devils do what every team should do: they act as if they don’t have the lead.

In the world of sports, playing not to lose is one of the best ways to lose. Sacrificing the puck consistently and allowing opponents countless shots, no matter how benign they may each seem individually, is a great way to give up silly goals. The Devils don’t give you that opportunity. 

If the Devils have their foot on your throat, they don’t ease off, they start tap dancing. And if they keep it up, there is no reason to think this team can’t jig their way right on through the postseason.