Let's talk Brock Boeser

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The Vancouver Canucks will be one of the teams to watch leading up to the trade deadline. Perhaps the team to watch.

They have a lot of attractive pieces they’re at least willing to listen on and a new, forward-thinking management group ready to put their stamp on the team. As such, the Canucks figure to be the center of activity.

J.T. Miller has long been thought of as the main piece the Canucks will sell off, however, it appears they might go in a different direction.

This from Frank Seravalli of DailyFaceoff:

It’s entirely possible that J.T. Miller, who is much more of a driver than Boeser, remains in Vancouver and Boeser is on his way to a new team. Could New Jersey be a fit for Boeser?

The New Jersey Devils being linked to Boeser makes sense based on a) their need for natural finishing ability and; b) Boeser’s age making him a long-term fit.

But let’s dive deeper into Boeser’s game, how he could fit, and what the Canucks may want in return.

What is Boeser about?

Boeser’s bread and butter is his shooting ability, which is no doubt what makes him so appealing to GM Tom Fitzgerald. The Devils simply don’t have anyone on the roster who can score goals like Boeser.

The 24-year-old sniper has averaged 31 goals per 82 games throughout his career. He has never actually hit 30 due to injuries and COVID-shortened seasons, however, that number seems like a realistic target for Boeser on any given year.

His finishing ability has been most evident on the power play. The extra time and space that comes with the man advantage has allowed his shot to be a focal point of Vancouver’s offense. Unsurprisingly, the results have been very encouraging.

Boeser has netted 2.07 power play goals per 60 over the last three seasons, slotting him ahead of names like Filip Forsberg, Mark Scheifele, Sidney Crosby, Andrei Svechnikov, and Nazem Kadri. That’s the good with Boeser.

The bad? He has been relatively inefficient scoring at 5v5. From 2019-22, Boeser’s goal scoring rate has been the exact same as Nico Hischier’s. The latter often takes heat for not scoring enough so, well, do with that information what you will.

Boeser also doesn’t provide much value when he’s not scoring. He doesn’t drive play, he doesn’t create much for his teammates, and he’s certainly not going to be contending for a Selke anytime soon.

In short, Boeser is a goal scoring power play specialist who might have potential to contribute a little more at 5v5 with the right linemates.

How would he fit long-term?

Boeser, as an individual, comes with an expensive price tag. A long-term extension would cost a lot of money and, in the short-term, his qualifying offer needs to be $7.5 million.

In other words, he’s probably going to make more money than a 1st line caliber (yes, 1st line) two-way center in Nico Hischier; and not much less than the face of the franchise, Jack Hughes.

If the Devils do go down this path, they’re better equipped to make it work than most teams. They already have a lot of cap space and P.K. Subban’s $9 million AAV is coming off the books in a few months.

They also have plenty of flexibility for the long haul. Nico, Jack, and Dougie Hamilton are the only non-ELC skaters signed beyond 2022-23. Fitzgerald has the ability to absorb almost any amount of money to bring in a star player and build accordingly.

As expensive as Boeser will be, the Devils can fit him in long-term without much issue.

In terms of the on-ice fit, it’s pretty cut and dry. Boeser would be attached at the hip of either Nico or Jack for the foreseeable future.

Both guys are creative and possess high-end passing ability. Both guys love to distribute the puck; they rank No. 1 and No. 2 among Devils forwards in 5v5 shot assists per game.

Nico and Jack can drive play while also making up for potential defensive issues of their wingers. Nico, in my opinion, is a better in-zone defender while Hughes is a thief and routinely steals away possessions before they get started.

I think either would work well with Boeser. In theory, the latter would play with one star center and Holtz the other. That’s surely an exciting proposition for Devils management.

What do the Devils have to offer?

Okay, let’s say the front office loves Boeser’s strengths and believes they have the pieces to help mask some of his deficiencies. They want to try and make the move happen.

What might the Canucks want in return? There are a few assets that stand out as trade bait:

Damon Severson

If the Canucks are holding onto J.T. Miller, that tells me they’re looking to retool on the fly rather than enter a full fledged rebuild. So, they’ll want pieces that can help them now and in the long run. Severson could be one of those pieces.

The 27-year-old rearguard is given a rough ride from the fanbase at times but he’s unquestionably a top-4 defenseman. He is mobile, a sneaky-good passer (in-zone and from range), he drives play, and he can chew up a lot of minutes. He is an attractive asset.

Severson is signed for another 1.5 seasons at a very reasonable price tag ($4.16 million) and, as a Western Canadian kid who played junior hockey in Kelowna, he would no doubt be open to an extension in Vancouver.

The Canucks are set on the left side with Quinn Hughes and OEL both locked in long-term. They are desperate for help on the right side; and Severson could provide that.

Ty Smith

For all his faults, Smith is a 21-year-old who has averaged nearly 33 points per 82 games at the NHL level. That is impressive production for such a young defenseman; especially given how badly the Devils have struggled to finish plays off over the last couple of years. It’s not like he’s playing for a powerhouse team like the Colorado Avalanche and having his totals inflated by such quality teammates.

At his best, Smith is a slick puck mover who can create offense on any given shift. His lack of size, and high risk tolerance, have caused him a lot of problems this season but there’s no denying he has the talent to be a much better player than we’ve seen.

Smith could be a long-term top-4 option, he’s dirt cheap (the Canucks want to create more cap flexibility), and players with his pedigree don’t become available all that often. It would take more, for sure, but I could see the Canucks being attracted to Smith.

Pavel Zacha

Zacha would be much more of a complimentary piece in a potential trade rather than a focal point.

His 5v5 production inconsistent at best, he’s not a play driver, and he’s going to be a $2.5-3 million player. I’m not suggesting he isn’t deserving of such a price tag, however, it’s possible a team in a tight cap situation doesn’t want to spend that kind of capital on Zacha.

On the flip side, Zacha has averaged 49 points per 82 games(!) since the beginning of last season. His PP goal scoring rate isn’t that far below Boeser’s over the last three seasons and he’s only a couple years removed from being a high-end penalty killer.

Depending on what kind of money the Canucks can clear out, or what other assets are coming back, Zacha could be an attractive ‘throw in’, if you will.

Arseni Gritsyuk

If the Canucks are trading a quality young player who can score goals, it’s reasonable to think they might want one back.

Gritsyuk was a pretty under-the-radar prospect for quite some time but he has really come on over the last year or so. The 20-year-old is enjoying a breakout campaign in the KHL, having scored 16 times and piled up 28 points through 39 games. Those are very solid outputs for a kid playing in the world’s 2nd best hockey league; outputs that are similar to what we saw from Artemi Panarin many moons ago.

Now, I’m not saying Gritsyuk is the next Panarin. That’s most certainly a stretch. I’m just hammering home what Gritsyuk’s doing is no small feat and that he has developed into a very valuable prospect. One the Canucks might push for in a Boeser deal.

Picks, picks, picks

Draft picks are always attractive. Always. Even if the Canucks want to retool on the fly, they could just use any picks they get to acquire pieces to help them faster.

Given that, and how badly the Canucks want to clear money out, I could see picks being a priority. Depending on the package, they might well push for a 1st. I don’t know that it happens – it shouldn’t! – but I could see them pushing for it.

I just don’t think the Devils can pull trigger on that kind of deal. This year’s 1st could be 1st overall so you can’t move that. Next year’s 1st, ideally, will be much lower but you just never know. Injuries or poor goaltending can completely derail a season, as we’ve seen first hand, and you don’t want to risk giving up a pick that turned into Connor Bedard or Matvei Michkov so you can land a 60-point player.

If the Canucks want an unprotected 1st over players/prospects, the Devils shouldn’t be the team to pay up.

Closing thoughts

Boeser is a very good goal scorer. For all his faults, guys who can score at a ~30 goal pace on a regular basis are very hard to come by. I have no doubt he’d boost the team’s offense and find a comfy spot alongside Nico or Hughes.

In saying all that, the Devils need not carried away. Boeser doesn’t bring much value outside of raw goals, he is expensive, and he has already dealt with quite a few injuries.

If it the Canucks are asking for top tier assets like Luke Hughes, Alex Holtz, or an unprotected 1st, I politely hang up the phone.

Boeser is a solid but flawed player attached with a very expensive price tag. He’s simply not worth diving into the war chest for.

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numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and PuckPedia.com