In defense of Juraj Slafkovsky
There's plenty of debate whether Slafkovsky's production warrants such a high selection.
Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell | @InfernalAccess
Be sure to join the Discord channel to talk hockey, and everything else, with our writers and subscribers.
Juraj Slafkovsky is one of the more divisive top prospects in recent memory.
The Slovakian power forward is expected to be chosen second overall – let’s face it, Montreal is taking Shane Wright – but there is plenty of skepticism about whether the New Jersey Devils should be selecting him that high.
The most frequent knocks against Slafkovsky are SM-liiga production and a combination of recency bias/people overvaluing small sample sizes with international play.
I thought it’d be fun to play Devil’s advocate – no pun intended – and poke some holes in those arguments; while helping fuel the case for Slafkovsky to be chosen 2nd overall.
Let’s dive right in.
On Slafkovsky’s SM-liiga production
The most common argument against Slafkovsky is that he didn’t produce enough to be chosen so high. Playoffs included, he put up seven goals and 17 points in 49 SM-liiga games. He was a 17-year-old playing professional hockey so those outputs are solid. But 2nd overall worthy? That’s what people are questioning.
I’m sure you’re all familiar with Moneyball. This is a bit of a ‘if he is such a great hitter, why can’t he hit?’ sort of thing.
Players who have ‘hit’ like Slafkovsky historically haven’t turned into impact players very often.
As you all know, I am very data driven in my analysis. I absolutely value the work Bader and other prospect analysts and modellers put out. And I’m not going to sit here and tell you Slafkovsky’s probabilities aren’t a little concerning.
But these models are built on points; and there’s a lot that goes into points. Not just ice time, role, and linemates – but percentages. They certainly didn’t help Slafkovsky’s cause this season.
Slafkovsky, individually, shot 5.6%. Put another way, opposing goaltenders owned a 94.4 SV% against him. Seems a little much but you know what? We’ll say that’s fine. He’s a 17-year-old shooting on paid professionals. It happens; moving along.
The much, much, bigger issue was Slafkovsky’s on-ice shooting percentage. With Slafkovsky on the ice, his team scored on 4.3% of the shots. That ranked him 23rd among 24 players who appeared in at least 15 regular season games.
Let’s say Slafkovsky had a 7.8 on-ice SH%, which would’ve slotted him tied for 12/24. Middle of the pack. That would’ve resulted in Slafkovsky’s team scoring 10 more goals with him on the ice.
Even though he picked up a point on 10 of 12 goals (83.33%) he was out for this season, we will play it conservative and say he gets a point on just six of the 10 extra goals (60%).
Suddenly we’re talking about someone who put up 16 points in 31 games as a 17-year-old. It is hard to produce in pro leagues as a kid, which is why each point is weighted more heavily.
Simply put, a handful of extra points likely has Slafkovsky painted in a different light with public models. That’s not to say they’d have him projected to be a sure-fire star; but I don’t think there’d be nearly the fuss made about him being chosen as high as 2nd.
Sometimes luck isn’t on your side for a large chunk of games; heck, even a full season. It’s important to accept that and not overreact.
Take Jordan Eberle, for example. Look at his shooting percentage by year; and at which point the Oilers decided to pull the plug on Eberle.
He hit one bump on the road and was shipped out of town. Wouldn’t you know it, Eberle’s shooting percentage normalized the very next season and he out-produced the player he was traded for (Ryan Strome) by 12 goals and 25 points.
I’m not saying to throw Bader’s model out the window and get ready to buy a jersey of the league’s next superstar. But there is a reasonable explanation for how Slafkovsky, a player scouts love, ended up grading so poorly in public models.
On Slafkovsky’s international play
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Infernal Access to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.