How many things do the New Jersey Devils actually need to fix?

CJ Turtoro addresses that question in his latest.

Be sure to join the Discord channel to talk hockey, and everything else, with me and fellow subscribers.

Today’s post was written by C.J. TURTORO. You can find C.J. on Twitter @CJTDevil.

---

The general feeling of malaise in the fanbase is reaching an understandable critical mass after the New Jersey Devils have lost 98 of their last 100 games – at least it feels like that.

I see a lot of people talking about how this franchise has “losing in the DNA” or some similarly ill-formed cliche. This depicts a team that is just beyond repair and is irredeemable in all, or most, facets of the game.

This always seems like too simple an explanation so I wanted to take a quick look into how much would actually have to change to get the Devils a fighting chance at the playoffs.

Specifically, I wanted to see if one or two components would be enough to launch them back into contention (45-55% chance at the postseason). I decided to start with the most talked about one (the power play), and the one we no longer talk about because it’s been terrible for a decade (goaltending).

Let’s look first at the power play, because I’ve seen a lot of people talk on Twitter about where we’d be at if we had even a league-average power play.

I think it’s fair to wonder but it’s also important to note that most of the game is not played on the power play. Even with how bad the Devils have been, there is a limit to how much they could improve from the power play alone. 

The Edmonton Oilers currently have, debatably, the best PP in the history of the NHL. They are converting at a 31.5% rate. The Devils have only drawn 78 PP opportunities (24th in the NHL) so converting at that historic rate would give them 14 extra goals. That would bring their goal differential up from -16 to -2. So if they had the best power play in NHL history, they’d still be a slightly below-average team in this league.

But that’s not really on the table. I wanted to know what the Devils would look like with even a league-average power play — something that seems plenty reasonable to expect — so I simulated the Devils PP minutes assuming a league average goal-per-minute rate.